NFL Preseason Betting Trends and Guide
With so many teams resting their starters while prized rookies and journeymen battle for jobs, the task of find value in the NFL preseason odds can be a challenge even for the most seasoned NFL betting fan.
Here is a look at NFL preseason betting trends and best bets that you should keep in mind before making your picks on this year’s NFL preseason odds.
Don’t forget to check out our complete list of NFL preseason game odds, NFL futures and NFL specials and props.
Jets, Jags Top List of Preseason Powerhouses
As NFL Preseason Week 1 gets underway, five teams return to action riding win streaks of at least four games. The New York Jets have produced losing records in each of the past nine NFL campaigns, averaging just over five wins per season over that stretch, but their track record of success in August cannot be overlooked. The Jets return to action undefeated straight up and against the spread in four straight preseason games and have gone an impressive 11-2-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their past 14 preseason contests.
The Jacksonville Jaguars open their schedule riding a league-best six-game SU and ATS win streak in preseason play, capped by a sensational performance by the Jags defence a year ago, when they allowed just 6.7 points per game in August. With Trevor Lawrence back in good health and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter set to play on both sides of the ball, the Jags are not only a solid NFL betting option in August but also warrant a value bet as a much improved +310 wager to win the AFC South this season.
The success of the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans in the NFL preseason cannot be overlooked. The Bears have won four straight and 10 of 11 in August and failed to cover just once over that stretch. The Titans are enjoying a 5-0 run in preseason and are also undefeated in five straight August home games while giving up just 12.2 points per game. Of course, enthusiasm for teams enjoying August success should be tempered considering the Jags, Jets, Bears, and Titans all missed the NFL playoffs after running the preseason table a year ago.
Playing the NFL Preseason Totals
It is common knowledge that point totals in NFL preseason games are typically much lower that during regular season action. Indeed, the average total in 2024 NFL preseason games was just 34.9 while the total in regular season games was 45.8.
While low numbers in totals betting may entice you to pound the OVER, it was the UNDER that generated payouts in 2024, going an impressive 31-18 in NFL preseason action. In addition, the long-running “37 is the magic number” rule flipped hard in 2024. Historically, totals less than 37 have gone OVER approximately 57 per cent of the time but it was the UNDER that went 34-24 last season.
In addition, situational angles matter in NFL preseason betting. Teams held to 10 or fewer points tend to bounce back in their next game, with the OVER paying out 58 per cent of the time since 2010, regardless of where the total is set, while same-conference preseason matchups where the total is set at 37 or higher have seen the UNDER pay out 67 per cent of the time since 2015.
NFL Preseason Notes and Factoids
Failure in NFL preseason action does not necessarily translate into a doomed season. Since 2021, eight total teams followed up on winless preseasons by claiming NFL playoff berths
Conversely, only two teams have ever followed up on an undefeated preseason with a run to Super Bowl glory, with the 2003 New England Patriots and 2013 Seattle Seahawks accomplishing the feat.
Road underdogs of +2.5 or fewer points have been a profitable play in NFL preseason betting, covering in 66 per cent of games over the past decade.
Teams that are coming off a 20+ point preseason win and favoured in their next game have gone 23-7 SU and 17-10-2 ATS since 2013.
