NFL Odds: Will Aaron Rodgers play a game before the end of the regular season?

There were high expectations for the New York Jets in 2023. They finally found a superstar quarterback after trading for Aaron Rodgers and they were expected to have a top-10 defence in the NFL.

Well, all that hype lasted exactly four snaps before the Jets crashed and burned like the Jets always do. Rodgers tore his left Achilles on the first drive of the season, an injury that was expected to end his season, if not his career. Three months removed from surgery, Rodgers has made it clear he expects to play meaningful games for the Jets before the end of the regular season.

Could Rodgers really return in 2023?

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What progress has Rodgers made?

Rodgers, who has made a show of throwing footballs during Jets pre-game warm-ups, had surgery on his Achilles roughly 10 weeks ago. He’s reportedly running again and has sent video of himself jogging on an AlterG treadmill to Jets personnel. Keep in mind, that’s a type of anti-gravity treadmill that uses air pressure to ease impact, so it’s not exactly the same as fully returning to running. Rodgers also said he still needs to build up strength in his heel and his calf, which is prone to fatigue. Still, his rehab is clearly progressing and it’s expected he’ll rejoin the team full-time by next week.

A plan is in place

A return this season might have seemed unlikely a few months ago, but Rodgers has done enough in his career to prove he shouldn’t be underestimated. As he seems to always do, Rodgers laid out the game plan for his return on “The Pat McAfee Show”. Rodgers wants to be back practicing with the team, or close to it, by his birthday, which is Dec. 2. That timeline gives him almost three weeks of practice before New York’s Dec. 24 game against the Washington Commanders, his unofficial return date target.

Contention is key

Aside from the physical hurdles, another factor in Rodgers’ possible return will be where the Jets sit in the standings. He has repeatedly stated that his comeback is contingent on the Jets remaining in contention.

After Week 11, the Jets are third in the AFC East with a 4-6 record. They’re riding a three-game losing streak and their upcoming schedule does them no favours. Before the Christmas Eve game against Washington, New York faces Miami twice as well as Atlanta and Houston. Three of those matchups are home games, but you’ve got to think the best the Jets can do is go 2-2 and even that might be a stretch with the way C.J. Stroud and Houston are playing.

If New York does manage to go 2-2 over the next four games, that will give them a 6-8 record by Rodgers’ return target. They end the regular season with games against Washington, Cleveland and New England, which are all winnable with Rodgers under centre, so the Jets could realistically finish with a 9-8 record.

If you’re wondering, three of five teams to finish with a 9-8 record last season made the playoffs and Tampa Bay actually got in with an 8-9 record thanks to a brutal NFC South division.

Comeback kid

If Rodgers manages to return this season it would be one of the most unlikely injury comebacks in recent NFL history. He’s only three months removed from Achilles surgery and he turns 40 in December. To put it in perspective, a typical recovery timeline from Achilles surgery is roughly six to nine months and a return to sport can be as long as nine to 12 months. Age can also be a major factor and Rodgers began the season as the second-oldest player in the NFL.

So, will Rodgers return in 2023? Ask me again in a month when the Jets have either blown their season or saved it.