NFL Odds: Betting tips, odds and predictions for all 2023 Thanksgiving games
The NFL kicks off Week 12 with its annual slate of American Thanksgiving games on Thursday. The Detroit Lions began the tradition in 1934 and have hosted a Thanksgiving game every year since, while Dallas joined as the second permanent host in 1966, although the Cowboys didn’t host in 1975 or 1977. A third prime-time game was added in 2006 with rotating teams.
With years of Thanksgiving betting trends, we’re here to give you the info that will help you make your picks for Thursday’s three head-to-head NFL matchups.
Don’t forget to check out our complete list of NFL game odds, NFL futures and NFL props and specials.
2023 NFL Thanksgiving betting tips
ATS
Favoured teams have been the play in recent years. Since 1984, the favourite is 70-23 straight up and 57-36 against the spread in Thanksgiving Day games. Those percentages are even better over the last two decades, with the favourite going 46-8 SU and 36-18 ATS in 54 Thanksgiving Day games since 2004.
As profitable as it has been to bet the Thanksgiving Day favourites, here’s one cautionary warning. Home favourites are 20-5 SU since 2009, but they are just 13-12 ATS in those games. Road favourites, who are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS in that stretch, have been a much better option.
Thanksgiving Day is all about being thankful, right? Wrong, if you’re a home dog on Thanksgiving. Home teams have been the underdog 18 times in the last 41 games, going just 5-13 ATS in those contests. One of the few exceptions is the Lions last year, who lost 28-25 to Buffalo, but managed to cover as nine-point underdogs.
Game totals
It’s been a fairly even split on the total in recent Thanksgiving games. Since 2009, Thanksgiving games have gone 20-21 on the Over/Under, while last year saw two of three games hit the Over. Detroit and Buffalo combined for the only Under in 2022, finishing with 53 points on a total of 54.5. The Cowboys and Giants finished 2.5 points above the number while New England and Minnesota blew 18 points past the total.
All-time Thanksgiving game record
Detroit Lions: 37-44-2
Dallas Cowboys: 32-22-1
Green Bay Packers: 14-20-2
Washington Commanders: 4-8-0
San Francisco 49ers: 2-2-1
Seattle Seahawks: 2-2-0
2023 NFL Thanksgiving games
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Prior to the last couple of seasons, Detroit was an awful franchise for decades and there were actually calls to take them off the Thanksgiving schedule. The Lions look like they’ve turned things around as a franchise, but they’ve still dropped 10 of their last 14 holiday games and they’re riding a six-game Turkey Day losing streak, while going 7-7 ATS in those games. There are a couple of reasons to roll with the Lions, however, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last four Thanksgiving games and they are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 home games overall.
Green Bay’s 36 Thanksgiving game appearances is second-most in the NFL among the rotating teams (everyone other than Detroit and Dallas). This is the Packers’ first Thanksgiving game since since 2015 when they lost 17-13 to Chicago despite entering the game as a 7.5-point favourite.
Score Prediction: Green Bay 23, Detroit 30
Full Packers vs. Lions Game Preview
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
America’s Team is a staple of Turkey Day football, but they haven’t been all that kind to bettors in recent years. Over the last 14 Thanksgiving games, Dallas is hit-or-miss at 6-8 SU and they’ve been an abysmal cover option at 3-11 ATS. They’ve also failed to cover in four straight Thanksgiving games, including last year’s 28-20 win against the Giants as 10.5-point favourites.
Washington has just a .333 winning percentage in Thanksgiving games, but they did manage to blowout Dallas 41-16 as 2.5-point favourites in their last appearance in 2020. Keep in mind, the Cowboys were playing without quarterback Dak Prescott, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury a month before the game.
Score Prediction: Washington 21, Dallas 28
Full Commanders vs. Cowboys Game Preview
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks and 49ers have nearly identical all-time Thanksgiving records and neither team has played in the event since they faced each other in Seattle in 2014. The Seahawks won that game 19-3, covering as a 1-point favourite.
Score Prediction: San Francisco 27, Seattle 20