NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
The top seeds in the two conferences, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) and Philadelphia Eagles (NFC), take the field for the first time this postseason. Here’s a look at each game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday
While the Chiefs are the AFC’s top seed, they will not host the conference championship game if they win and the Buffalo Bills also do over Cincinnati on Sunday. That’s because Buffalo’s Week 17 game in Cincinnati was canceled due to safety Damar Hamlin collapsing on the field. Thus, the Chiefs somewhat earned the top seed by default. If they and the Bills had finished with the same record, Buffalo would have earned it. A Bills-Chiefs AFC title game would be played in Atlanta. If it’s any other team but Buffalo against Kansas City, the Chiefs would host it for a fifth straight postseason.
QB Patrick Mahomes will be named NFL MVP for the second time in his career next month as he led the league with 5,250 passing yards and 41 TD throws. Jacksonville was down 27-0 late in the first half at home this past Saturday vs. the Los Angeles Chargers but rallied for a stunning 31-30 win on a walk-off field goal, the third-biggest comeback victory in playoff history. Trevor Lawrence had four first-half picks but finished with four TDs as well. The Jaguars lost in KC 27-17 in Week 10. Mahomes had four TD passes.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday
The Eagles beat the visiting Giants 22-16 in Week 18 (New York rested most starters) to clinch the NFC’s top seed. Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts returned from a two-game right shoulder injury absence but clearly wasn’t quite 100 per cent – he wouldn’t have played if the game wasn’t meaningful. Perhaps the extra time off will have Hurts at full health. Philadelphia’s defence had a spectacular season, ranking No. 1 against the pass (179.8 ypg) and in sacks (70; two shy of NFL record).
The Giants were 31-24 upset winners at Minnesota on Sunday to advance. Daniel Jones picked a good time to play his best game of the season with 301 yards pass, two TDs, no picks and 78 yards rushing. New York completely gashed a bad Vikings defence.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (alternate line of -6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills, Sunday
These teams “played” Week 17 in Cincinnati as mentioned above, but the game was cancelled with the Bengals leading 7-3 in the first quarter because of the Damar Hamlin situation. While Hamlin’s health is obviously the most important thing, if the Bengals had gone on to win that game, they would have been the AFC’s No. 2 seed instead of Buffalo had Week 18 gone as it did. So Cincinnati would be hosting this game instead of going to upstate New York.
Both these teams were a bit fortunate to advance against teams playing backup quarterbacks in the Wild Card Round. Buffalo was shockingly pushed to the limit in a 34-31 win over Miami as Josh Allen had two picks and three fumbles, losing one. Cincinnati was about to trail Baltimore 24-17 in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but Ravens QB Tyler Huntley fumbled while trying to leap over the pile into the end zone, and it was returned 98 yards for a touchdown and a 24-17 Bengals lead instead. That score stood.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday
Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy still hasn’t lost in his young career as he threw for 332 yards and three scores and rushed for a touchdown in Saturday’s 41-23 win over Seattle – San Francisco’s 11th straight victory. Purdy was nearly perfect in the second half, going 9-of-11 for 185 yards with two passing touchdowns and that rushing score. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 119 yards and caught a TD pass. Deebo Samuel had six catches for 133 yards and a score. This team should be the Super Bowl favourite right now. The Niners are now 14-0 this season in games in which they commit one or zero turnovers.
Dallas was a short favourite on Monday night in Tampa but may have ended Tom Brady’s Bucs career with a dominant 31-14 victory. Dak Prescott was terrific in throwing for four touchdowns and rushing for another. The defence also played great in blanking the Bucs in the first half, including picking off Brady in the end zone when the Cowboys were only up 6-0. Dallas didn’t play San Francisco during the regular season, but they played in the Wild Card Round at AT&T Stadium after last season and the Niners won 23-17.
Pick ATS: San Francisco