NFL Betting Review: Week 13

Charlie Boccanegra | Updated Oct 04, 2017

Home Dogs continued to fall over Thanksgiving, with Detroit losing on Thanksgiving and Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Cleveland also failing to get the job done at home on Sunday.

Home-field advantage in the National Football League is proving to be much more of a myth this season than a moneymaker. The league’s home teams won just five of eleven games last weekend, the second straight week homers posted that record. And after going 6-10 against the spread last week, host teams are on a 23-52-1 ATS run over the last five weekends of action. So on the season, while home teams have won 104 of the 190 games played (excluding the tie game and the game played in London), they’re a miserable 79-111 against the numbers, which calculates to just a 41.6% cash-in rate.

And NFL home underdogs, once thought to be a long-run wagering proposition with some bite for bettors, continue instead to roll over for all of their financial backers and play dead. Last week, all five of the home dogs – Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, and each of Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Cleveland on Sunday – lost outright, and three of them – the hapless Lions, the Redskins, and the Rams (who are once again in the tank) – failed to cover the spread. So for the season, NFL home underdogs are now sitting at 16-42 straight up and 21-37 against the spread (36%).

One week after NFL matchups averaged more than 52 total points per game, setting a new league record in the process, last week’s set of games averaged a more normal 41 points, helping the over/unders post a 7-9 record. So on the season as a whole, NFL totals are now at 96-90 (excluding pushes), as the 192 combined games have averaged 44.5 total points.

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