Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League: Playoff Preview and Prediction

The Champions League is back in action today, but we have four more games to watch on Wednesday to finalize the eight squads who will advance to the Round of 16. Although Tuesday’s slate features European giants Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, and Newcastle United, one of the best matchups won’t kick off until Wednesday, as Italian side Atalanta hosts Borussia Dortmund. 

Although the Germans took the first leg at home 2-0, Atlanta will likely feel as if they can mount a comeback, which is why I have broken down the game below.

Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Champions League Odds and Betting Trends

Despite falling 2-0 in the first leg, Sports Interaction has Atalanta priced as +110 favourite to win in 90 minutes on the Champions League odds, largely due to a clear home-field advantage. Atalanta boasts a solid 2-1-1 home record in the Champions League, whereas Dortmund (+220 to win, +270 draw) has struggled on the road with a 1-1-2 record, including tough defeats to Man City and Tottenham. 

The Over/Under is set at 2.5 with the Over juiced to -140 and the Under offering +110 odds. Although the first leg only saw two goals, expect potential fireworks in this matchup; seven of Dortmund’s last 10 games across all competitions, along with half of Atalanta’s recent matches, have featured three or more goals.

Atalanta

Although Atalanta suffered a 2-0 defeat in the opening leg, they bounced back over the weekend by taking down third-place Napoli 2-1 in Serie A. After their defeat to Dortmund last week, they’ve now dropped three consecutive UCL games, but that form hasn’t carried into their domestic play. Outside the UCL, Atalanta is unbeaten in their last 10 games (8-2-0), which includes wins over Napoli, Juventus (Coppa Italia quarterfinals), and AS Roma. If they can carry that form into this match, they can pull off a comeback.

Nikola Krstović (+150 to score) has been the main man for Atalanta, as he has eight goals and five assists in all competitions, but he’s only found the back of the net in the UCL once. Additionally, Gianluca Scamacca (nine goals and two assists in all comps) has the shortest odds to score at +120, but he also only has two goals in the UCL this season. Overall, I’d avoid betting on individual Atalanta players in this one, but I’m still targeting their team total.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund is in the driving seat on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean things will be easy for Die Schwarzgelben. After last week’s victory, they drew RB Leipzig 2-2 in the Bundesliga, but they scored in stoppage time to secure a point, so it will likely feel like a win for the Germans. However, it likely took a lot out of them to fight back from a two-goal deficit, so I’m not sure they’ll be fully prepared for a tough environment in Italy. Not only that, but their road form cannot be ignored this season; they’re 4-4-2 in their last 10 road contests, and their two defeats came by three and two goals.

Although Atalanta will test Dortmund on Wednesday, they’re more than capable of scoring on a counterattack. I already tagged Serhou Guirassy (+140 to score) in my UCL predictions for this week’s games, as the Dortmund striker has six goals and an assist in his previous five games in all competitions. He recorded a goal and an assist in the first leg, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds the back of the net in this one.

Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund?

Dortmund did well taking a two-goal advantage in the first leg, as I think they’ll need that lead to advance. My main bet is for Atalanta to score at least two goals, as they’ve been consistent at home. 

The Italian side has 2+ goals in 10 of their previous 12 games in front of their home fans, and Dortmund has allowed 2+ goals in all four of their road games in the Champions League. Bank on both trends continuing on Wednesday.

Best Bet: Atalanta Team Total Over 1.5 (-105)

Score Prediction: Atalanta 2 | Borussia Dortmund 1