NFL Best and Worst Teams Against the Spread: Patriots, Panthers and Falcons are hurting bettors

As the NFL enters Week 16, there’s more than enough trends and statistics for bettors to comb through to make an informed pick. The standings show us the good teams, the average teams and the bad teams, but straight up records don’t tell the whole story for bettors.

Let’s look at the best and worst teams to bet against the spread in the NFL this season.

Don’t forget to check out our complete list of NFL game odds, NFL futures and NFL specials and props.

Best teams to bet ATS

Six teams have covered the spread in just over 64 per cent of their games this season, with the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cowboys and Ravens all sporting 9-5-0 ATS records heading into Week 16. Those results closely mirror the standings as currently all six teams either lead their division outright or share the lead.

Tampa Bay is one of the surprise teams on this list. The Bucs are 7-7 straight up on the season, matching New Orleans’ record, but Tampa has the tiebreaker so they technically lead the NFC South. Expectations were low for the Buccaneers this season, but the resurgence of quarterback Baker Mayfield has kept the team in games and led to covers against some big name opponents like the Bills and 49ers.

Miami and Dallas have used home field advantage to their benefit this season. The Dolphins have covered in five of seven home games in 2023 and the Cowboys have covered in six of seven home dates. On the flip side, Miami is 4-2 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 3-4 ATS on the road. With the teams playing in Miami on Christmas Eve, the Phins look like the play in Week 16.

It might be wise to be cautious when betting the Lions or Ravens to cover over the last few weeks of the regular season. Detroit and Baltimore both have comfortable leads at the top of their respective divisions, so they could elect to rest key players down the stretch. One team on this list that won’t rest players, however, is Indianapolis. The Colts are in a dogfight with Jacksonville for the AFC South. With the Jags holding the tiebreaker, Indianapolis needs to win and will come to play in their last few regular season games.

Worst teams to bet ATS

It’s no surprise New England and Carolina are the two worst teams against the spread through 15 weeks. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL standings at 2-12 SU and the Patriots are second-last at 3-11 SU. Carolina has scored 13 or fewer points in eight games, while New England has been shutout twice and held to single-digit points (or no points) in five games. That’s not a recipe for winning or covering.

The Falcons are 6-8 SU this season, but that’s a little misleading given the terrible NFC South division, so their 4-10-0 ATS record is a more accurate portrait of the team. Three of the four teams Atlanta has covered against (Panthers, Saints and Jets) are among the worst cover options in the NFL this season, so they’re not exactly surprising powerhouse opponents. The Falcons did manage to cover the spread against Tampa Bay in Week 14, although they lost the game 29-25.

NFL teams ATS

*Records entering Week 16