Jaguars vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds, Prediction
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is set, with the Jaguars and Chiefs kicking things off at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Chiefs have a chance to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game for the fifth straight season, while Jacksonville hasn’t reached the AFC Championship game since 2017.
Kansas City is a heavy 8.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams met once this season, with the Chiefs winning 27-17 at Arrowhead in Week 10. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. Four different Chiefs receivers hauled in touchdown passes. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence threw for 259 yards and two TDs, both to Christian Kirk.
With last week’s cover in the wild-card round, the Jaguars are now an even 9-9 against the spread in 18 games this year. They’re also 9-9 on the Over/Under, finishing above the number in six of nine road games. Jacksonville has both the longest odds to win the AFC outright at +1269 and the longest Super Bowl odds at +2835.
Kansas City finished 7-1 straight up at home this season, with their lone loss coming against the Bills back in Week 6. They were 7-10 ATS overall, while the total went Under in six of eight home dates. The Chiefs are the AFC favourite at +132 and a +269 Super Bowl favourite.
KC has won the last six games between these teams dating back to 2010.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence had a true Jekyll and Hyde performance last week in Jacksonville’s wild-card victory. The 2021 first overall draft pick followed up four first half interceptions with four second half touchdown passes to push the Jaguars to an improbable 31-30 victory after trailing the Chargers 27-0 in the second quarter. It was the largest comeback in franchise history and the third-largest in NFL postseason history. Jacksonville is now riding a six-game win streak.
Lawrence finished last week with 288 passing yards and became just the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw four picks in the first half of a playoff game. With Lawrence struggling, the Jaguars’ defence stepped up, sacking Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert three times. Jacksonville held L.A. to just 4.6 yards per play in the game and three second-half points.
The Jaguars are as healthy as you can expect at this point in the year. Lawrence was listed as “limited” at practice on Tuesday with the same toe injury that has seen him on the injury report since Week 14. Right guard Brandon Scherff did not practice on Tuesday with an abdominal injury. The abdominal injury had Scherff listed as “limited” last week, but he ultimately played every snap against the Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs obviously have two huge advantages coming into the Divisional Round as they will be at home and they have had an extra week to rest. Kansas City finished the season on a five-game win streak. They lost just three times this season, to Indianapolis in Week 3 (road), Buffalo in Week 6 (home) and Cincinnati in Week 13 (road). The Chiefs have been off since Jan. 7 when they beat the Raiders 31-13 in Las Vegas.
When Kansas City and Jacksonville met in Week 10, the Chiefs jumped out to an early 20-0 lead. The Jaguars closed the gap a bit, but the game was more one-sided in Kansas City’s favour than the score indicates. The Chiefs had nearly 500 yards of offence despite three turnovers, while the defence managed to sack Lawrence five times.
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman (pelvis) was the only member of Kansas city’s 53-man roster to miss practice on Tuesday. Hardman hasn’t played since Week 9 and likely won’t be ready this week. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) and tight end Jody Fortson (elbow) returned to practice on Tuesday, but it’s not clear if either player will be ready this week. Edwards-Helaire hasn’t played since Week 11, while Fortson has been out since Week 15.
JAC
KC