Falcons vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction

Sports Interaction Staff | Updated Dec 23, 2020

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, 2020

With a win securing a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Chiefs will likely look to keep things simple and stay healthy on Sunday.

Atlanta
4-12
AT
December 27, 2020, 1:00 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +11 -107
Moneyline +460
Over / Under o +54

40%

Betting Action

60%

Pointspread -11 -113
Moneyline -579
Over / Under u +54

40%

Betting Action

60%

The Falcons are essentially playing for pride and the chance to be a spoiler at this point, but with the bigger prize for Atlanta being their draft position, could there be more incentive for them to lose than to win?  The Chiefs are 10.5-points favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 53.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

With the second highest game total on the NFL odds this week, it might seem surprising that bettors are overwhelmingly picking the over at 92 per cent.  That could, however, have something to do with the fact that the over is 5-0 in the last five games between these two teams.

Atlanta has been strong against the spread lately, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following losses.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Atlanta Falcons

After dropping last week’s game 31-27 to the Bucs, the Falcons losing streak in now at three games.  At 4-10 on the season, playoff football will have to wait at least another year before returning to Atlanta.  In his first year with the Falcons, running back Todd Gurley II led the team with 644 rushing yards and 9 TDs, while veteran quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for just over 4,000 yards with 22 TDs and 11 interceptions.  Wide receiver Julio Jones has struggled with injuries throughout the year, picking up 771 receiving yards and three TDs, while Calvin Ridley leads the team with 1,192 receiving yards and nine TDs.

Defensively, Foyesade Oluokun has been a force for Atlanta, this year.  Oluokun leads the Falcons with 104 total tackles and 71 solo tackles, to go along with three sacks.  Deion Jones and Grady Jarrett have also found ways to get to opposing QBs, with Jones recording a team-high 4.5 sacks and Jarrett picking up four sacks of his own.

Kansas City Chiefs

In a potential Super Bowl preview, the Chiefs picked up their ninth straight win last week, 32-29 over the Saints, and they have clinched the AFC West, leaving them one win away from a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Patrick Mahomes has been having another MVP caliber season, throwing for almost 4,500 yards with 36 TDs and only five interceptions, while Travis Kelce has a team-high 1,318 receiving yards and Tyreek Hill leads the team with 15 TDs.  Kansas City’s top running back, rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, leads the team with 803 rushing yards and four TDs, but could be out with an ankle injury until the playoffs.

The Chiefs have also been strong defensively, receiving significant contributions from Daniel Sorenson and Chris Jones.  Sorenson leads the team with 84 total tackles and 61 solo tackles, while Jones has led the pass rush with 6.5 sacks.

Who Will Win Falcons vs. Chiefs?

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