Falcons vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Nov 13, 2024

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Despite still sitting pretty in their respective conferences, both the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos need a bounce back when they go head-to-head in Mile High.

Atlanta
6-6
AT
November 17, 2024, 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
8-5
Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +44.5
Matchup Odds
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -130
Over / Under u +44.5
Matchup Odds

The 5-5 Broncos have an inside track to the final AFC Wild-Card spot, which entering this season would’ve been viewed as a success. But back-to-back losses to two AFC juggernauts has eliminated any breathing room for Denver and makes for a crucial three-game stretch before a Week 14 bye. The 6-4 Falcons remain several games ahead in the NFC South but last week’s divisional loss to New Orleans has kept that door open, instead of Atlanta slamming it shut on the division. To summarize, no one’s really sure whether either the Falcons or Broncos are for real this season.

Kickoff at Empower Field at Mile High begins at 4:05 p.m. EST with Denver a -135 moneyline favourite and the over-under at 44 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Falcons have still only won five of their last 19 road games, but are starting to switch that trend by going 3-1 on the road this season. The high altitude at Denver will test that trend too, and also should lead to some offence. Five of the last seven Broncos home games have gone over the total, as have four of the last five Falcons–Broncos battles played in Denver. Atlanta has won and covered in four of these teams last five meetings.

Atlanta is a pass-heavy offence (33.5 attempts per game, 12th in the NFL) and it’s an area Denver has surprisingly struggled against in their past three outings (242.3 passing yards against per game, 26th in the NFL). Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins has gone over that 242 average just three times this season, but two of those have come in the past three weeks.  

Atlanta Falcons

The same old Falcons crept back in last week. Atlanta put up nearly 500 yards of offence, but three missed field goals and ill-timed penalties cost the Falcons nearly two touchdowns worth of points in the 20-17 loss. The same old Kirk Cousins showed itself too, when the game ended with the Falcons QB throwing a completion for -1 yards on fourth-and-four. Cousins remains the favourite to win Comeback Player of the Year at -115 odds (recovered from a torn Achilles).

Running back Bijan Robinson logged a season-high 116 rushing yards last week and has gone over 100 total yards in five straight games. If the Falcons are to win Sunday, they’re going to need that kind of production from Robinson as well as leading receiver Darnell Mooney. Atlanta’s resurged Mooney’s career; in 2021, Mooney has 1,055 yards and in 2022 and 2023 combined he had 907. Mooney’s on pace for 1,162 this season and has gone over 85 yards in three straight games.

Denver Broncos

Unlike their 41-10 loss at Baltimore the week prior, Denver went into Kansas City last week deserving to hand the Chiefs their first loss. But a blocked game-winning field goal attempt spoiled Denver’s chances and they’re back to .500. The moral victory from last week is the Broncos refuted the narrative that they can’t hang with the top NFL teams. But in a league like the NFL, they only remember what you’ve done lately… so Bo Nix and the offence need to deliver more than 14 points in Week 11. 

After rushing for 78 yards on 23 carries as a team last week, Sean Payton and the Broncos seem to be turning to 2024 5th-round draft pick Audric Estime as the new starting running back. Estime received a career-high 14 carries last week compared to Jaleel McLaughlin Javonte and Williams’ combined three attempts. Courtland Sutton continues to be the main guy in the passing game, hauling in at least six receptions in three straight contests.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Falcons vs. Broncos?

NFL Predictions
SportsInteraction
  • ATL
  • +2 -2
  • DEN
Matchup NFL Odds