Cowboys vs. Vikings Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Nov 19, 2020

Andy Dalton, Cowboys, 2020

It’s Andy Dalton back under centre for the 2-7 Dallas Cowboys as they hit the road up north to Minnesota for a date with the 4-5 Vikings.

Dallas
3-8
AT
November 22, 2020, 4:25 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota
4-6
Pointspread +7 -105
Moneyline +290
Over / Under o +50

77%

Betting Action

23%

Pointspread -7 -115
Moneyline -353
Over / Under u +50

77%

Betting Action

23%

The Vikings are winners of three straight, just finished an in-division tear and now have playoffs on their minds. Meanwhile in the NFC East, it’s still anyone’s division as the last-place Cowboys sit three points out of first.

But a bye week could change the Cowboys course this season — they did play undefeated Pittsburgh super close in their last game.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s been all Vikings when these teams square up, with Minnesota winning seven of their last 10 against Dallas and covering in all of the last seven meetings in Minneapolis. It just so happens that Minnesota is currently a seven-point favourite, according to oddsmakers. The Vikings have also done well against the spread this season at 6-3; the Cowboys first cover of the season came in Week 9.

This matchup should be won on the ground too. Two of the league’s best running backs are going head-to-head in Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, although it’s been polar opposites in terms of their production this season. Cook leads the NFL with 954 rushing yards, while Elliott’s fell out of the top 10 with 572 yards and a 3.8-yard per carry average.

Dallas Cowboys

For Dallas, going back with Dalton is an interesting decision in itself. Sure Dalton’s the veteran who was brought in as insurance, but he holds a 64.4 passer rating — the worst among Cowboys’ quarterbacks this season — while throwing for only 5.3 yards per completion. Former AAF quarterback Garrett Gilbert seemed to spark life into Dallas when they last hit the field, as they reached over 10 points for the first time since Dak Prescott got injured.

Dallas’ bye week would go to good use if they figured out their run defence. The Cowboys are second-worst in both rushing yards against per game with 157 and yards per carry with five. Minnesota’s second-best with 5.2 yards per rush attempt.

Minnesota Vikings

With a 5.5-yard per carry average and league-leading 12 rushing touchdowns, Dalvin Cook has nearly been unstoppable this season. The Vikings go through Cook, but you best be careful loading the box too often versus the league’s top rusher.

If you do, it creates favourable matchups for receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Jefferson’s seventh in the NFL with 762 yards as a rookie and Thielen’s tied for the NFL lead in receiving touchdowns with nine. Their quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has played good enough lately, throwing six touchdowns and an interception over their three-straight wins versus the NFC North.

Minnesota’s improving on defence too, giving up 55 points total over their last three games.

Who Will Win Cowboys vs. Vikings?

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