Commanders vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Wildcard Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 08, 2025

The Sunday night NFL game this week is an NFC Wild-Card matchup as the surprising Washington Commanders visit the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Washington
12-5
AT
January 12, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
10-7
Pointspread +3 -110
Moneyline +135
Over / Under o +51.5
Pointspread -3 -110
Moneyline -160
Over / Under u +51.5

Tampa Bay opened as 3-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 50.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

NFC third-seeded Tampa Bay is one of three teams in the Wild-Card round hosting a game despite having a worst record than its opponent as the Los Angeles Rams and Houston are in the same boat this weekend — but all division winners get at least one home game in the playoffs. The Bucs won the NFC South for a fourth straight season.

Not much was expected for Washington this season as it was supposed to be a rebuilding year under rookie QB Jayden Daniels and first-year coach Dan Quinn, but Daniels was magnificent and should win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Quinn will get votes for Coach of the Year. The Commanders are in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and even that season they finished with a losing record but managed to win the NFC East.

To win the NFC, Tampa Bay is +1100 and Washington +1800, and I don’t give either club much of a shot. It’s the fourth all-time playoff meeting between the franchises and first since the Bucs, quarterback by Tom Brady, won 31-23 at Washington in the Wild-Card round after the 2020 season. The teams also opened the 2024 regular season against one another in Tampa and the Bucs rolled 37-20 behind four Baker Mayfield TD passes. Daniels ran for two scores in his NFL debut.

Washington Commanders

Washington is looking for its first playoff win since after the 2005 season in the Wild-Card round against these Buccaneers. That playoff W drought is the third-longest in the NFL. The Commanders had little reason to play their starters on Sunday in Dallas so some didn’t very much but still won a fifth straight game, 23-19. It’s the franchise’s longest winning streak since 2012.

Jayden Daniels didn’t play long Sunday but broke NFL rookie QB single-season records for completion percentage (69.0) and rushing yards (891). Daniels left with a lower leg issue but was pulled simply out of caution. Wideout Terry McLaurin had TD catch No. 13 to set a franchise single-season record. It was the game-winning score with three seconds left. Tailback Austin Ekeler played for the first time since Week 12 off injury.

Washington finished the season 5-3 on the road, its best away mark since 2012, and 9-3 against NFC opponents, its best such record since 2005. The team’s 485 total points are tied for the second most in franchise history. Washington is 2-4 ATS in its past six vs. the NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay had to go all-out on Sunday to win the NFC South and things got very tense for a while, but the Bucs pulled it out 27-19. They clinched the third seed with a Rams loss to the Seahawks. Tampa Bay has made five straight playoff appearances for the first time in franchise history and is the only NFC team to make it each of the past five years. It is also the first team in NFL history to start 4-6 and reach the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.

QB Baker Mayfield had by far his best season, becoming the fourth player in NFL history with 40 passing TDs and a completion percentage of at least 70 in a season as Mayfield completed 71.4 per cent for 41 TDs. The Bucs also have gotten huge production from two rookies on offence. Tailback Bucky Irving’s 1,514 yards from scrimmage are second-most by a rookie in team history, while wideout Jalen McMillan enters with five straight games of a receiving TD and has eight on the year. The Bucs are 6-3 ATS in their past nine.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Commanders vs. Buccaneers?

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