Chiefs vs. Chargers Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jan 04, 2024

The Kansas City Chiefs locked up their eighth straight AFC West title last week as they prepare to end the regular season against the nosediving Los Angeles Chargers.

January 07, 2024, 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
Pointspread -1.5 -105
Pointspread ++1.5 -125

There’s nothing on the line for either team in this game, but the 10-6 Chiefs could use it as a tuneup game to things back on track before they defend their Super Bowl championship in the playoffs. The 5-11 Chargers, who have lost four straight games, are guaranteed to finish last in the AFC West and they are likely just trying to get the season over with as quickly as possible.

The Chiefs are expected to rest most of their starters, so the Chargers are coming in as 3.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 35.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s been all KC in this head-to-head series recently as they’ve won four straight games against L.A., including a 31-17 decision in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce beat up on the Chargers in that game. Mahomes threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns while Kelce had 12 catches for 129 yards and a score.

Kansas City has owned the AFC West for years and they come into this game 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 trips to L.A. They’ve won eight straight road games against the Chargers and they’re 16-3 straight up in their last 19 games overall against L.A. For the season, the total has gone Under in nine of the Chiefs’ last 12 games overall and seven of their last nine against AFC opponents.

It’s been a miserable season for the Chargers, who are 6-10 ATS overall and have failed to cover in six of their last eight games. They’re a dismal 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall and 1-5 SU in their last six at home. The total has gone Under in 11 of L.A.’s last 14 games overall and four of their last five against AFC West opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is locked in as the No. 3 seed in the AFC and there’s a reasonable chance they could meet Buffalo in the first game of the playoffs. That’s a much tougher route for a Chiefs team that just hasn’t looked the same this season. The main concern is on offence. KC scored just one touchdown in last week’s 25-17 win against Cincinnati, instead relying on six field goals to get the win.

It will be interesting to see how the offence shakes out this week as head coach Andy Reid has indicated he will rest most of his starters, including Mahomes. That leaves backup QB Blaine Gabbert to start in L.A. Gabbert, a 12-year NFL veteran, hasn’t started a game since 2018 with the Tennessee Titans. His only action this season came in Week 3 when he replaced Mahomes in a blowout win against the Bears, completing three of five pass attempts for 31 yards and two interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce is 16 receiving yards away from his eighth straight 1,000-yard season, so he could see a few snaps early before being shut down.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers failed to score a touchdown in last week’s 16-9 loss in Denver. Kicker Cameron Dicker converted three field goals to improve to 8-of-9 overt the last two games. Easton Stick, who took over starting QB duties following Justin Herbert’s season-ending injury in Week 14, threw for 220 yards last week, but failed to throw a touchdown pass for the third time in four games this season.

L.A. has struggled to provide solid receiving targets for Stick. Keenan Allen (heel) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) have both been sidelined in recent weeks. There’s a chance Palmer, who played 93 per cent of the offensive snaps two weeks ago, could return in Week 18. Return specialist Alex Erickson was Stick’s main target last week. Erickson finished with seven receptions for 98 yards. Erickson has seen 10 of his 14 overall receptions on the season  come with Stick at QB.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Chargers?

NFL Predictions