Chiefs vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 04, 2022

Week 18 of the NFL season kicks off Saturday afternoon from Denver as the nothing-to-play-for Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs.

AT
January 08, 2022, 4:30 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
7-10
Pointspread -12.5 -105
Moneyline -625
Over / Under o +45

75%

Betting Action

25%

Pointspread +12.5 -115
Moneyline +492
Over / Under u +45

75%

Betting Action

25%

The Chiefs are 9.5-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 44 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Kansas City is the AFC West champion for the sixth year in a row and I’m curious how much motivation it will have Saturday. The Chiefs technically can earn the AFC’s top seed with a win over Denver and then a Tennessee Titans loss on Sunday in Houston. There’s almost no way the Titans lose that, but I presume KC will go all-out Saturday to at least get the AFC’s No. 2 seed and guarantee itself a second home playoff game if it wins the first one.

Denver is playing out the string and it’s not clear if Coach Vic Fangio will get a fourth season in 2022 as Fangio is 19-29 with the team. He’s a great defensive mind, but the Broncos’ offence has been largely terrible. Expect the team to be active in acquiring a quarterback this off-season, perhaps Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson in trade.

The Chiefs have owned the Broncos for several seasons and beat them 22-9 in Week 13. Denver outgained Kansas City 404-267 but had three turnovers, one an interception returned 75 yards for a touchdown. KC is 10-2 against the spread in the past 12 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost control of their destiny for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and had an eight-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 34-31 loss at Cincinnati in a potential playoff preview. The Kansas City defence has been playing incredible during the winning streak but was gashed for 475 yards. Evan McPherson hit the game-winning 20-yard field goal as time expired.

Patrick Mahomes threw for two scores and Darrell Williams ran for two. Top running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was out injured. Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. sustained a calf strain during pre-game warmups and didn’t play. His replacement, Lucas Niang, suffered a torn patellar tendon in the game. Kansas City is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 following an ATS loss.

Denver Broncos

Denver was in the wild-card hunt at 7-6, but the offence has gone missing in a three-game losing streak as the team has totalled just 36 points. The Broncos had to start backup QB Drew Lock for a second straight week on Sunday due to a concussion to starter Teddy Bridgewater and they lost 34-13 at the Chargers to be eliminated from playoff contention. That assured a fifth straight losing season for the franchise. Lock was OK in the loss, completing 18 of 25 for 245 yards and a TD.

Lock apparently will start this week as well as there’s really no reason for Bridgewater to play to risk further injury as a pending unrestricted free agent. Receivers Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick and star pass-rusher Bradley Chubb were all out in COVID protocols but should clear them for Sunday. Denver is 2-6 ATS in its past eight vs. teams with a winning record.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Broncos?

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