Chiefs vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Jan 03, 2025

The Broncos are catching a break when they host the Chiefs this weekend, as the Chiefs are resting starters, making this essential win for Denver much more attainable.

AT
January 05, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
10-7
Pointspread +9.5 -110
Moneyline +475
Over / Under o +38.5
Pointspread -9.5 -110
Moneyline -650
Over / Under u +38.5

Denver’s now a 10.5-point favourite, as players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Thuney, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, and Justin Reid are expected to sit out throughout the 15-1 Chiefs roster. The Broncos now have a 64 per cent chance to make the playoffs, as a win in this game guarantees that outcome for Denver.

Kickoff at Empower Field at Mile High gets going at 4:25 p.m. EST with the Broncos -10.5 on the point spread, and the total at 39.5 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 meetings with the Broncos. The encouraging news for Denver is they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games with Kansas City, and probably should have defeated this Chiefs team at full strength back on November 10 — a last-second field goal block gave Kansas City a 16-14 win. Denver is now 5-1 ATS in the last six Chiefs–Broncos contests too.

Overall this season, Denver’s gone 5-2 both outright and ATS on home field. January hasn’t been a kind month to Denver though as they’re 1-5 in their last six contests played in the opening month. Kansas City’s covered in five straight January games, and while it may not be Mahomes and Kelce leading the charge this time around… Andy Reid is still coaching this squad. 

Kansas City Chiefs

With Kansas City in line to rest starters, Carson Wentz will get the start at quarterback. Wentz would have the likes of Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster at receiver, and likely Noah Gray as his tight end, because well, you can’t sit everyone. Wentz, once a frontrunner for MVP back in 2017, has thrown 26 passes in the last two seasons. He actually started in Week 18 last season with the Los Angeles Rams, and defeated San Francisco in a 17 for 24, three touchdown performance that saw Wentz accumulate 219 total yards.

Running back Isiah Pacheco missed Wednesday’s practice with a ribs injury, but he’s another name to watch on Sunday granted he plays. Pacheco’s yet to produce since coming back from injury last month, which makes Week 18 a great opportunity to get Pacheco back in a groove before the post-season. 

Denver Broncos

A dramatic 30-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati, along with a 34-27 defeat at L.A. the week before has the Broncos still in a win-and-get-in scenario. At 9-5, Denver looked near automatic to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015 — a year they won the Super Bowl. Denver’s playoff life falls into the hands of rookie QB Bo Nix, who had some real highs and real lows last week. Nix threw three touchdowns last weekend, highlighted by a beautiful 51-yard deep ball to Marvin Mims Jr. and then another conversion to Mims Jr. on a must-have fourth down. But a late interception drastically hurt Denver’s chance to close that win out, as did a two-yard three-and-out in overtime.

Receiver Courtland Sutton is 17 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season, and has more incentives to hit too. Sutton will make $500,000 if he reaches 1,065 yards receiving on the season, meaning he needs 82 yards Sunday. And if Sutton hauls in three receiving touchdowns Sunday, another $200,000 performance bonus is coming his way.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chiefs vs. Broncos?

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