Bills vs. Ravens Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Sep 05, 2018

Nathan Peterman

Quarterback Nathan Peterman, who threw five interceptions in a one half of a game last season, will get the Week 1 start in Baltimore.

Buffalo
6-10
AT
September 09, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore
10-6
Pointspread +7.5 -105
Moneyline +300
Over / Under o +38.5

27%

Betting Action

73%

Pointspread -7.5 -115
Moneyline -380
Over / Under u +38.5

27%

Betting Action

73%

You would have a hard time convincing anyone strictly based on this year’s futures odds that the Buffalo Bills are coming off an AFC playoff appearance. But major changes on both sides of the football have left the Bills decimated as they prepare for their regular-season opener Sunday against the host Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are +440 longshots to return to the post-season – and the Ravens are well-positioned to show fans and bettors exactly why.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Ravens are favored by more than a touchdown in this one, the result of a steady stream of bad news in Bills Town that gradually pushed the line down from an open of -3.5 in mid-April. Baltimore has been an incredibly difficult home opponent in September, having gone 25-5 SU and 18-11-1 ATS in its previous 30 home games for the month. That includes an 18-2 SU mark in its last 20 September home contests, with the two losses coming by a combined 11 points.

The Ravens have been just as consistent in the totals department, having gone 2-7 O/U in its past nine home games in September. That plays into the Bills’ dominant trends, as they’ve gone 2-5 O/U in their previous seven September road games. Buffalo went 2-2 O/U in games with a total below 41 last season, while the Ravens went over six times in nine games when the total sat below that threshold. The teams are 1-4 O/U in their last five meetings in Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills

It’s unclear how the Bills are going to score enough points to be relevant, even in a watered-down AFC East. Nathan Peterman will open the year at quarterback; he’s best known for throwing five interceptions in one half last season. LeSean McCoy is facing legal issues and a porous offensive line. And the No. 1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, hasn’t flashed stardom since his rookie season. Bettors are getting a healthy +184 on the Bills going over 6.5 wins.

Baltimore Ravens

While we’ve presented plenty of reasons why the Ravens should cover with ease, bettors should be wary nonetheless. Baltimore has been a home favourite of seven or more points on seven occasions since mid-December 2014, and has covered just twice. In fact, it lost outright to Cincinnati the previous time it was one-touchdown favourite or more back on Dec. 31 of last season. The Ravens also went 1-5-1 O/U in those contests.

Bills vs. Ravens Prediction

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