Betting With Bastl: Will the Texans Continue to Struggle?

David Bastl | Updated Oct 07, 2020

Gardner Minshew, Jaguars, 2020

Minshew Mania is headed to Texas where the Jaguars are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine visits to Houston.

The Houston Texans are in a whole lot of trouble entering week five of the NFL season. Still winless in four tries, the team made a major move firing General Manager and Head Coach Bill O’Brien. Assistant coach Romero Crennel takes over the reins on an interim basis.

Under normal conditions the Texans might get a lift with the new boss in place, but I don’t see that here with this group. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why I like the Jaguars – there are plenty. First off, the Jags have a better passing and rushing game then the Texans. They have averaged more points per game than the Texans, and their 3rd down efficiency is over 10 percent higher.

Key players in the Jacksonville lineup have simply played better. Gardner Minshew has better numbers than Deshaun Watson, James Robinson has outgained David Johnson and the list goes on.

Speaking of Watson, could this be a breakout game for the franchise quarterback? As mentioned he has struggled at times, but he also holds a 4-1 lifetime record against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (Sunday, Oct 11 2020 1:00pm)

  • Houston Texans -289
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +239

NFL Week 4 Betting Two-minute Drill

A couple of major stats have me circling the cats. First off, they are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine visits to Houston. Also, the road team in this head-to-head matchup is 13-4-1 in their last 18 meetings. Finally the underdog in this divisional matchup is 6-1 ATS in the last eight games.

Bastl’s Bets: Jaguars +6.5

Overtime Predictions:

Joe Burrow is undefeated in his last two games (a win and a tie), but he now faces one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Ravens have won the last three games they played against the Bengals in this divisional series, but check out this stat: the Bengals are 5-1 against the number in their last six games to Baltimore. There are too many points on the board not to be tempted – and I am tempted.

Talk about a first-year schedule. Rookie Quarterback Justin Hebert went head-to-head with Tom Brady last week, and now he faces Drew Brees in prime-time. Hebert has been up to the challenge this season. In his first three starts he has a passer rating of 102.2 and has thrown for 931 yards. The Saints are a disappointing 2-2 on the season and squeezed past the Lions last weekend by six points. I’m expecting a close game on Monday night.

Bastl’s Bets: Bengals +13.5, Chargers +7.5