49ers vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Super Bowl Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Feb 09, 2024

Will the Kansas City Chiefs be the first back-to-back Super Bowl champions in almost 20 years?

February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -130
Over / Under o +47
Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +110
Over / Under u +47

It’s the single biggest game on the North American sports calendar on Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Both teams have a chance to make history on Sunday. The Chiefs are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 38 and 39. The Niners are looking for their sixth Super Bowl championship which would tie the franchise with New England and Pittsburgh for most titles in NFL history.

The 49ers are 2.0-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This will be a rematch of Super Bowl 54, which essentially kicked off Kansas City’s current dynasty. The Chiefs trailed that game by 10 points after three quarters before outscoring San Francisco 21-0 in the fourth to win 31-20. Head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce are among the returning personnel for Kansas City in Super Bowl 58, while the biggest loss is probably wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are back for the Niners, but the team has moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy.

Including the regular season and playoffs, San Francisco is 14-5 straight up and 9-5 against the spread. They are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against winning teams and the Over has hit in four of their last six games against the Chiefs. The 49ers have been a much better cover option on the road this year where they are 6-3 ATS compared to just 3-7 ATS at home.

Kansas City is 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS this year. They have been a dominant dynasty in the playoffs, going 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 playoff games. Since the start of last year’s playoffs, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco was arguably the best team in the NFL during the regular season, but it’s a major red flag that they barely scraped through in both their playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. They trailed by a touchdown after three quarters against the Packers and they were down 17 points at the half against the Lions. This is a chance for Purdy to shake off the “game manager” label. He had solid numbers with 252 passing yards against Green Bay and 267 passing yards against Detroit, but he only managed to throw for one touchdown in each of those games.

The offence is more likely to go through running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished the regular season with an NFL-best 1,459 rushing yards. McCaffrey hasn’t slowed down in the postseason, rushing for 188 yards and four TDs over both games. He’s also a dual threat as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. The Niners are up against an elite level defence, so they can’t afford another slow start and they need to establish the running game early.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs looked vulnerable during the regular season, but they’ve hit another gear in the playoffs and dismantled three strong teams in Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. Mahomes passed for 241 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and Kelce turned back the clock, finishing with 116 receiving yards and a touchdown. Kelce, who is averaging 87.3 receiving yards in three playoff games, also has three TD catches and he’ll be Kansas City’s most dangerous receiving threat against the 49ers.

The Chiefs’ offence has done enough to win, but the defence has been key to their success. They rank second in the NFL in total defence and they were able to hold Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the presumed regular season MVP, to one passing touchdown, one interception and no rushing TDs in the AFC Championship Game. The only concern is Kansas City’s rushing defence, which ranks 17th in the NFL. Shutting down McCaffrey will likely be the Chiefs’ defensive main focus on Sunday. Still, this is a team that has already shutdown three top-six scoring offences so far during this playoff run.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win 49ers vs. Chiefs?

NFL Predictions