2023 NFL Draft Odds and Picks: 5 Best Draft Bets
The Carolina Panthers are all but locks to pick Alabama quarterback Bryce Young at the top. Here are five other NFL Draft prop picks.
Number of First-Round Quarterbacks
The over-under is 4.5 with the over a -200 favorite, meaning oddsmakers expect at least five signal-callers to go in Round 1 and so do I. Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson are first-round locks unless one gets arrested for a serious crime between now and Thursday. They might be the top four picks overall.
Thus, for the over to hit on this prop it surely comes down to Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who was the Heisman Trophy favourite briefly last season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL on Nov. 19 in a loss at South Carolina. Some team surely will use a first-round pick on Hooker because then he’s under team control for five years (as all first-round picks can be if their fifth-year option is exercised) instead of four, and Hooker probably will be selected by a club that will let him sit and learn for a season.
The Minnesota Vikings have Kirk Cousins in the final year of his contract and they are the +399 favourites to be the team that drafts Hooker. They currently pick 23rd. That makes sense. So does perhaps Tennessee (+698) if the Titans trade down a bit from No. 11.
Number of First-Round Tight Ends
The over-under is 2.5 with the under a -286 favourite and that’s where we land. Two tight ends are given first-round grades via CBS Sports: Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer is ranked as the No. 22 overall prospect and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid No. 31 – there are only 31 first-round picks this year as Miami lost its pick due to tampering violations. The only way this lands over is if Georgia’s Darnell Washington lands in Round 1, and he’s currently the No. 35 prospect.
Mayer is the -154 favourite as the first tight end selected, and he should be after an All-American career with the Irish. No props on where Mayer may land, but Green Bay at No. 13 overall has been a popular landing spot to pair with new starting QB Jordan Love. Kincaid is -120 to be the second tight end picked and we like that as well.
Bijan Robinson’s Team
Former University of Texas star Bijan Robinson is considered perhaps the best running back prospect to enter the draft in a few years at least, but teams generally don’t take running backs high these days because they have such a short shelf life in the NFL, and it has been proven that quality running backs can be found on Day 2 or 3 of the draft.
Robinson is -10000 to be the first back chosen, and that’s absolutely happening. Not much value there. On the team to draft Robinson prop, Atlanta is the +200 leader with the Falcons picking eighth. The Falcons are known to love Robinson and have taken skill position guys first in the past two drafts in tight end Kyle Pitts with the fourth overall pick in 2021 and wideout Drake London with the eighth overall selection in 2022.
Atlanta might prefer to trade down a few spots and land Robinson but as long as he ends up there, this prop still counts as a win if wagered. The last Texas RB chosen in Round 1 was Cedric Benson by Chicago in 2005.
Jets’ First Pick Position
The long-awaited trade of four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers to New York Jets finally happened on Monday, and now it’s on New York to make sure the 38-year-old QB is well-protected. The offensive line was an injury-ravaged mess last year, and offensive lineman is the -278 favourite to be first selection of the Jets, currently at No. 15 overall. They were at No. 13 but included that in part of the Rodgers package and got back 15 as part of it.
The Jets appear to have four spots locked up on the O-Line in centre Connor McGovern, guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Laken Tomlinson and left tackle Duane Brown but need a right tackle. Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. could be there at No. 15.
GM Joe Douglas had the draft of his career in 2022 in landing the Defensive Rookie of the Year in cornerback Sauce Gardner (No. 4 overall pick) and Offensive Rookie of the Year in receiver Garrett Wilson (No. 10 overall).
Devon Witherspoon
Illinois All-American Devon Witherspoon, the anchor of the nation’s No. 1 scoring defence last season, is the -263 favourite to be the first cornerback off the board with Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez at +160 and then a huge drop-off, and we like Witherspoon in this spot – perhaps as high as No. 6 to defensively needy Detroit. That the Lions are the team to take him regardless of where is a -135 favourite.
The 5-foot-11, 181-pound Witherspoon did not allow a single TD last season and had three picks. Via Pro Football Focus, he had the best coverage grade (92.5) among all Division I defensive backs and allowed an FBS-low 3.0 yards per attempt to be named Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year. Witherspoon has been compared to the Jets’ Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick last year who won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
NFL Draft Prop Picks
Over 4.5 Round 1 QBs -200; under 2.5 Round 1 TEs -286; Bijan Robinson +200 to Falcons; Jets -278 to pick offensive linemen with their first pick; Devon Witherspoon -263 first cornerback selected.
