2022 Fiesta Bowl: TCU (3) vs. Michigan (2) Betting Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 27, 2022

The first College Football Playoff national semifinal is Friday at 4 p.m. ET from outside Phoenix as No. 3 TCU faces No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.

December 31, 2022, 4:00 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
Pointspread +7.5 -101
Moneyline +271
Over / Under o +56


Betting Action


Pointspread -7.5 -119
Moneyline -330
Over / Under u +56


Betting Action


The Wolverines are 7.5-point favourites on the college football odds.

VRBO Fiesta Bowl Betting Analysis

Friday is the first-ever meeting between TCU of the Big 12 and Michigan of the Big Ten. The Frogs haven’t faced a Big Ten school since a 34-13 win vs. Purdue in 2019. The Wolverines last played a Big 12 opponent in 2013 and lost to Kansas State.

It’s the first time in the College Football Playoff semifinals for TCU, which is also the first school from Texas to make and first Big 12 school other than Oklahoma. Michigan is in it for the second year in a row, losing to eventual national champion Georgia 34-11 last season.

The winner faces either No. 1 Georgia or No. 4 Ohio State in the national title game on Jan. 9 from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Michigan upset the Buckeyes in late November to earn a return trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs (3)

TCU was picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, but he won several national Coach of the Year Awards in leading the Frogs to a 12-0 regular season before being upset 31-28 in OT by Kansas State in the conference title game. The CFP committee, though, kept TCU at No. 3 in the ranking.

Quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan wasn’t the team’s Week 1 starter but took over for an injured Chandler Morris and kept the gig. He threw for 3,321 yards with 30 TDs and four picks while rushing for 404 yards and six scores. Duggan will enter the 2023 NFL Draft but isn’t opting out of a playoff game. That doesn’t happen. TCU is the second team to open the season unranked and reach the CFP. The other? Michigan last year. The Frogs’ five wins over ranked opponents are tied with Tennessee for the national lead. TCU is 9-3-1 ATS in its past 13 games.

Michigan Wolverines (2)

Could this be the last game as Michigan coach for Jim Harbaugh if the Wolverines are upset? He nearly took the Minnesota Vikings job after last season, and the Denver Broncos are expected to at least reach out to Harbaugh. He enters the Fiesta Bowl with a 2-6 record in bowl games, including 1-5 at Michigan. The Wolverines are 13-0 for the first time in school history behind a dominant running game that averages 243.0 yards (fifth nationally) and a defence that gives up just 13.4 points per game (fifth in country).

U-M’s top running back and a one-time Heisman contender is Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 TDs), but he hurt his knee on Nov. 19 vs. Illinois and won’t play in the playoff even if U-M advances. Harbaugh has quite the No. 2 in Donovan Edwards, who averages 7.5 yards per rush and obliterated Ohio State for 216 yards and two scores on 22 carries in the regular-season finale. Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its past seven non-conference games.

Fiesta Bowl Prediction:Who Will Win TCU vs. Michigan?