Capital One Orange Bowl Prediction: Georgia vs. Michigan Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 28, 2021

Before potentially going No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft, Aidan Hutchinson will look to lead the Michigan Wolverines to a berth in the national title game when they face the Georgia Bulldogs in the Orange Bowl on New Years Eve.

December 31, 2021, 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Pointspread -7.5 +103
Moneyline -271
Over / Under o +46.5


Betting Action


Pointspread +7.5 -124
Moneyline +224
Over / Under u +46.5


Betting Action


The College Football Playoff semifinals conclude on New Year’s Eve night in the Orange Bowl from Miami as No. 2 Michigan of the Big Ten faces No. 3 Georgia of the SEC for a spot in the national championship game – probably opposite No. 1 Alabama.

The Bulldogs are 7.5-point favourites to win on the college football odds with a total of 45 points.

Capital One Orange Bowl Betting Analysis

It’s the first time in the College Football Playoff for Michigan – the Wolverines were just 2-4 in last season’s COVID-shortened campaign and Coach Jim Harbaugh’s job was in jeopardy. U-M is the first school to reach the playoff after being unranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25.

No Big Ten school has won the national title since Ohio State in the first College Football Playoff following the 2014 season. Three times a No. 2 seed like Michigan has won it, last following the 2018 campaign by Clemson. The Wolverines are +577 to win it all.

Georgia is in the playoff for the second time. Following the 2017 regular season, it was the No. 3 seed in the Rose Bowl and beat Oklahoma in a double-overtime thriller. UGA then lost in the title game in an overtime classic to No. 4 Alabama.

SEC schools have won the playoff four times. Here’s something interesting, though: A No. 3 seed like Georgia never has. The Bulldogs are +147 second-favourites to Alabama this time.

Michigan and Georgia have split two all-time meetings but haven’t played since 1965.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia (12-1) was the No. 1 team in the nation for the last several weeks of the regular season but lost that when the Dawgs were beaten quite thoroughly 41-24 by Alabama in the SEC title game. That Georgia defence entered allowing fewer than seven points per game and hadn’t allowed more than 17 all year (it still leads the nation by far in allowing 9.5 ppg).

That’s not the biggest worry coming out of that game, though. Quarterback is. Stetson Bennett had a very uneven performance with two picks and Coach Kirby Smart may have a decision to make on going with Bennett in this game or previous starter JT Daniels. Daniels opened the year as the starter but then got hurt and served as backup to Bennett once healthy. Then again, that question may be moot as Daniels and receiver George Pickens are among players who have been placed in COVID protocol. Daniels is vaccinated and in theory could have enough time to recover. Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its past seven non-conference games.

Michigan Wolverines

Jim Harbaugh had yet to beat bitter rival Ohio State as Michigan’s coach and few expected the Wolverines (12-1) to do so on Nov. 27, but they dominated in a 42-27 victory to reach their first-ever Big Ten title game, where Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3. This is an old-school team that wins with a strong running game behind the duo of Hassan Haskins (1,288 yards, 20 TDs) and Blake Corum (939 yards, 11 TDs), more of a game-manager at QB in Cade McNamara (only four picks) and a stellar defence led by end, Heisman Trophy runner-up, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-American and potential 2022 NFL Draft No. 1 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.

Hutchinson finished with a school-record 14 sacks to go along with 15.5 tackles for loss, three pass breakups, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. Thanks in large part to Hutchinson, U-M ranks No. 4 in scoring defence (16.1 ppg). As of this writing, Michigan has not reported any COVID issues and the entire team was to get a COVID booster shot Wednesday (Dec. 22). Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its past five overall.

NCAA Football Prediction: Who Will Win Georgia vs. Michigan?