NCAA Final Four Best Bets: Owls, Aztecs, Huskies, Oh My!

If anyone had said that Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and UConn would be the schools represented in the Final Four, they time travelled from the future. Therein lies part of the fun of March Madness: one can never truly predict what will happen.

With only two games this weekend, our concentration needs to be laser-focused. Both contests, Florida State (9) vs San Diego State (5) and Miami (5) vs UConn (4) are scheduled for Saturday, April 1. Yes, a bit of a strange day to have such momentous games, but don’t be fooled. Much excitement will be had.

Don’t forget to check out the NCAA odds and NCAA props for all the college hoops action.

Florida Atlantic Owls (9) vs San Diego State Aztecs (5)

A nine seed has made it to the final four. Congratulations to the Florida Atlantic Owls for making it this far. The Elite Eight round saw them go toe-to-toe with the third-seeded Kansas State Wildcats. This was an excellent game that went down to the wire, aided in large part by some terrific shooting. Florida State went 48.1 per cent from the floor while Kansas State did themselves proud with 46.6 per cent. The Owls gave themselves a lot of problems with 22 turnovers, but ultimately prevailed 79-76. Alijah Martin topped his side in scoring, finishing with 17.

As for the San Diego State Aztecs, they ejected another one of the 2023 Cinderella squads, the Creighton Blue Jays. Their test was a much more low-scoring affair, with several extended sequences going by with either one team or the other not making a bucket. In fact, despite winning, the Aztecs shot even worse than their opponents did, 37.9 per cent to 40.0 and on more shots (66 to 55). In the end, San Diego State prevailed in a nailbiter, 57-56. Lamont Butler was the highest-scoring Aztec, netting 18 points.

The experts have the Aztecs at -3.0 and -153 on the moneyline. The total is tabulated at 131.5. They’ve been terrific at preventing other sides from scoring on them. Three of their four opponents so far have netted fewer than 60 points. The only one who did is Alabama and they didn’t light things up with 64. With that in mind, a really interesting prop is here the under.

The other prop that makes sense is Florida Atlantic +3.0. They’ve lived off the thrill of close games under unbelievable pressure. It seems likely that they would at least keep at least one more game close.

Miami Hurricanes (5) vs UConn Huskies (4)

This semi-final matchup is arguably a bit less surprising than the other, but not by much. The UConn Huskies entered the NCAA tournament with some decent history behind them (3 Elite Eights appearances in the last 14 years) and as the tournament went on, it became increasingly obvious they were more than ready for this year’s edition. As for Miami, they’ve reached the school’s first-ever Final Four, surpassing their previous best finish, the Elite Eight.

And it wasn’t necessarily easy for the Hurricanes to make it this far.  The lower the seed, the tougher the opponents one will face. Their previous opponent was the highest remaining seed in the tournament, the Texas Longhorns. Texas made Miami sweat, there’s no doubt about it. The Longhorns had a double-digit lead early in the second half, but the Hurricanes whipped up a memorable comeback fuelled by forced turnovers and Jordan Miller’s amazing 27 points to win 88-81.

For their part, the Huskies humbled Gonzaga, the highest-scoring team in the country. UConn’s defence made the Bulldogs work for every bucket they scored, which wasn’t nearly as many as they were accustomed to. A 39-32 halftime lead gave UConn a jolt of confidence with which they mauled Gonzaga in the remaining 20 minutes, ultimately prevailing 82-54. Jordan Hawkins led UConn with 20 points.

Vegas has UConn as a -5.5 favourite and -237 on the moneyline, with the total tallied at 149.0. It’s incredibly tempting to take that -5.5. UConn has not played a close game so far in the tournament, winning by 24, 15, 23, and 28. It isn’t as if -5.5 is a remarkably large spread either, but enough to suggest that the Huskies are a dangerous team.

On the positive side for the Hurricanes, Jordan Miller has had a terrific tournament. One of this game’s props is his scoring over or under 14.5 points. While he’ll surely be the focus of UConn’s defence, the over is feasible here, even if he finishes with only 15 or 16.