Texas (11) vs. Gonzaga (3) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
One of the more intriguing matchups in round two of the NCAA Tournament pits the No. 11 seed Texas Longhorns against the No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs on Saturday. Gonzaga may look like a sizable favourite based on the seeding, but Texas already has two wins under its belt in the Big Dance, and the Zags did not look great during their first-round victory over Kennesaw State.
This marks the sixth meeting between these programs, with Gonzaga leading the head-to-head series 4-1. They most recently played a home-and-home series across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. The Bulldogs prevailed 86-74 in Spokane before the Longhorns took care of business on their home floor 12 months later via a 93-74 decision.
Texas vs. Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Gonzaga is going off as a -5.5 favourite on the NCAA odds board and is priced at -230 on the money line. Texas is +190 to pull off an upset. As for the game total, it is set at 146.5 points.
Recent trends are in favor of the Zags, who are a decent 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Longhorns, on the other hand, are 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall. Meanwhile, the Under is 3-0 in Texas’ last three contests and 7-0 in Gonzaga’s last seven.
Texas Longhorns
Getting relegated to the First Four is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. One, it certainly beats getting left out of the tournament entirely! Two, it gives you a chance to build momentum before the real tournament begins. It has, without question, been a good thing so far for the Longhorns. They slumped into Selection Sunday on a three-game losing streak and with a 1-5 record in their last six games, but they scraped past N.C. State 68-66 in the play-in round and then ousted No. 6 seed BYU 79-71 on Thursday night.
The bad news for Texas is that it really has just four guys who score the basketball; the good news is that all four do a good job of it. Over the past four games, each one has led UT in scoring. On Thursday, it was Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 PPG), who dropped 23 points on the Cougars.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga trailed Kennesaw State for most of the first half before taking a six-point lead heading into the break. Although the Bulldogs were never seriously tested over the final 20 minutes, they also never quite pulled away from the 14th-seeded Owls. Freshman guard Davis Fogle stepped up in a big way off the bench, delivering 17 points and five rebounds in the 73-64 victory.
As Thursday’s final score indicates, this is not the high-flying Gonzaga team that we have seen so many times under longtime head coach Mark Few. This iteration of the Zags is getting the job done with defence, ranking No. 15 nationally in opponent points per game (65.9). These Bulldogs don’t even push the pace; they are No. 93 in the country in possessions per game.
Who Will Win Longhorns vs. Bulldogs?
Gonzaga’s defence will likely be the difference in this matchup. The Zags have gone seven straight games without giving up more than 70 points; they have held their last three opponents to 56, 68, and 64 points.
Now they face a Texas team that has only four players averaging more than 6.0 PPG and none at more than 17.6 PPG. Let’s go with Gonzaga 74, Texas 67.