-
Jeremy Perry
Lipscomb (15) vs. North Carolina (2) Odds: March Madness Prediction
The North Carolina Tar Heels looked bad in January but have been a completely different team in February. They won nine of 12 to end the year with two of the losses coming to Duke and Virginia, who are top-flight teams. They’re not expected to have any trouble in the first round against Lipscomb, who might be more excited than any other NCAA Tournament team in the whole field. But will they cover the number?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Against the spread this season, North Carolina is 19-14-1 but that’s impressive when you factor their RPI of 4. Their strength of schedule is considerable. They played at Tennessee in the non-conference portion of the season, plus Arkansas, Michigan State and Ohio State on neutral courts and Michigan at home. The ACC put nine teams in the NCAA Tournament this season, so North Carolina’s 11 wins in the ACC regular season plus three more wins in the ACC Tournament give the Tar Heels a great body of work.
March Madness betting odds show that Lipscomb is 4-2 ATS this season. They played a lot of un-lined games. They went 10-4 in the Atlantic Sun Conference before winning the three-game tournament. Overall, their strength of schedule was decent in the non-conference portion of the season, which is why their RPI is higher than a lot of other teams seeded 15 or 16.
Lipscomb Bison
There are now 42 eligible schools which have never made the NCAA Tournament. Lipscomb narrowed the list from 43 to 42 by making its first NCAA field in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had a three-game losing streak in early January but have lost just one time since January 18. This is an up-tempo offense which tries to move the ball rapidly and prevent the defense from getting set. The Bisons scored 60 points against top-seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun Tournament final.
Why is Lipscomb a 15 seed instead of a 13 or 12 seed? The Bisons established a 32-point lead in that game against Florida Gulf Coast but then watched their lead get trimmed to six points with several minutes left before they barely hung on to win. This team has a great offense but does not have a lot of power or strength near the basket and is vulnerable to defensive pressure. North Carolina loves to run, so this game should be extremely high scoring, and Lipscomb has to be able to hit a ton of threes to stay in the hunt.
The Bisons have an elite scorer, Garrison Mathews, who averages 22.1 points per game. The secondary option is Rob Marberry, who averages just over 16 points and almost six rebounds. They both have to be at their best to push North Carolina. It just feels like the moment will be a little too big for Lipscomb.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have three highly proven players from their 2017 national championship roster. Joel Berry is the veteran point guard who gets the team into its halfcourt offense and makes reliable, sound decisions with the ball. Theo Pinson is a creative wing playmaker who is not a great three-point shooter, but slashes to the hoop and actively tries to find shots for teammates with clever passes. Luke Maye has been asked to play more in the low post than he did last season and is averaging a double-double. The team is loaded.
At the end of January, North Carolina was 5-5 in the ACC and headed for a No. 7 or No. 8 seed in this NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels have lost only three games in the past month and a half, once at Duke and once to No. 1 Virginia in the ACC Tournament final. This team has managed to adjust, and by playing this game in Charlotte, it will have a huge home-court advantage with lots of fans in the seats. This feels like a blowout in the making.
