Why the Boston Celtics Should not be a Top NBA Championship Pick

The Boston Celtics. A storied franchise. A 17-time NBA title winner. With legends like Larry Bird, Bill Russell, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Paul Pierce just to name a few, wearing the green and white uniform carries a lot of prestige and high expectations. The organization has consistently been relevant in the NBA conversation when it comes to possible title winners, including the current generation of Celtics.

Boston is once again at the top of the pecking order in the odds to win it all at +400, tied with the Milwaukee Bucks. That duo is followed closely by the Denver Nuggets at +550 and the Phoenix Suns, also at +550. But it’s important to be realistic. To wake up and smell the coffee.

The Celtics should not be pegged with such strong odds. History and their rivals to glory are sufficient reasons to temper expectations.

Why? Read on.

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The Celtics’ Dynamic Duo of Tatum and Brown

How on earth could history not be on the Celtics’ side? Apart from the Los Angeles Lakers, who also have 17 title banners hanging in their arena, no one comes even close. Third in line are the Golden State Warriors with seven. Surely that means the Celtics have something in their DNA that makes them prone to winning another ring.

Celtics supporters surely like to think so, and maybe, just maybe, this is indeed their year. But the current era of Celtics stars and the coaches who have tried guiding the team to glory suggests otherwise.

This part of the conversation concerns primarily the longest-serving Celtics stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford. Were Marcus Smart still around (now with the Memphis Grizzlies), he’d be a part of this too.

Jaylen Brown has been with the organization since it drafted him in 2016 and Tatum since 2017. Al Horford was with the team from 2016 through the 2019, then came back in 2021.

The stats don’t lie. Tatum and Brown are two of the most consistent players in the NBA and clearly the two best on the Celtics’ roster. Brown has notched at least 23 points a night three seasons in a row (at least 20 points four seasons in a row), and Tatum at least 26 points a tilt three consecutive years (at least 20 four times). Their numbers translate well to the postseason. Brown’s may be a hair lower, but Tatum’s increases his by one or two.

History Repeating. Bad History

The reality is that they have not achieved that glory. Yes, there is time. Yes, they are still relatively young. And yes, if they have a good supporting cast, there’s a chance they can win it all every year. The Warriors, Raptors, Bucks, Lakers, and Nuggets have all got the job done. The Celtics haven’t. In fact, they’ve only played one NBA Finals. It was in 2022 against the Warriors. Boston took a 2-1 series lead and held the advantage at home in Game 4 heading into the final frame. Then it all fell apart, with the Celtics losing three straight and its dynamic duo looking about as bad as they ever had.

Boston was a top team in the East back in 2018 and made it to the conference final on the back of a perfect home playoff record. They only lost one game at TD Garden. Game 7.. They were one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference in the 2020 bubble playoffs but were bounced out in the conference final by the Heat in six games and certainly looked like the second-best team. Last year, they once again were the favourite to win the conference final versus the Heat. In a bewitching series featuring unexpected twists and turns, the Celtics fell flat on their faces at home in Game 7.

That’s a lot of big games, many at home, where Boston has fumbled the ball, so to speak. Or in basketball parlance, shot bricks. During the last two runs (the 2022 and 2023 playoffs), the club started strong at home, typically winning at TD Garden in the first round, then playing about .500 at home in the second round, then having a losing record in the conference and NBA Finals. The bigger the magnitude of the stage, the flatter the performances. Conference finals and NBA Finals games themselves are unbelievable pressure cookers, even more so in a legendary basketball town like Boston.

Bill Russell, Larry Bird, and Paul Pierce relished those situations. Until the current generation gets the job done, it’s tough to argue after multiple seasons that there’s nothing to worry about with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They have the talent to do it, but do they have the mental toughness?

So Boston is tied with the best odds to win the championship this year. It feels as if this is the season when that’s least likely to happen. Is Jrue Holiday so much better than Marcus Smart? Is Kristaps Porzingis the centre the Celtics have been missing all these years?

This Year’s Crop of Contenders: Nuggets, Bucks, Suns, Warriors

Let’s not forget the other critical component of this conversation: the rivals to the throne. The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions. They failed in 2021 largely due to Jamal Murray’s absence (injured) and in 2020 to the eventual champion Lakers, but not after two incredible comebacks from 3-1 series deficits. Nikola Jokic is a beast, an NBA champion, and a former MVP.

Is anyone honestly comfortable betting against the Golden State Warriors? Last year wasn’t great, and sooner or later their dynasty will come to an end, as all of them do. Until it becomes obvious they can’t make deep postseason runs any longer, it doesn’t feel like a wise move to freely overlook Stephen Currey and company.

The Phoenix Suns are a special breed of contender. They look nothing like the team that got bounced in the second of the 2022 playoffs. They don’t even look much like the team that got bounced last year. Devin Booker is a star and Kevin Durant seems to be on a team where he’ll fit in nicely (which was never the case in Brooklyn for all sorts of reasons). He also has two rings from his Golden State days, so he knows what winning is.

Speaking of players who know all about success, there are the Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a former champion (2021) and league MVP (2019 and 2020). Khris Middleton has long been seen as that team’s secret sauce, and while they’ve lost Jrue Holiday – in Boston, incidentally – they have Damian Lillard. This could very easily be another scenario king to KD in Golden State where a very good team with championship experience adds a tremendous talent to keep on winning.

How about the Miami Heat? Granted, they’ve been to two NBA Finals recently and lost both, which doesn’t work in their favour. On the flip side, they have two appearances to Boston’s one and, by the way, they took out the Celtics to reach both Finals. Jimmy Butler loves playing Boston.

None of these sides are going to be easy to overcome. It’s not a question of if they can do it. Sure they can. They just haven’t shown in the past that gut instinct of a champion. If anything, they’ve shrunk when the lights have gotten brighter. Winning the first round of the playoffs against a seventh or eighth-seed is expected of them. Beating the Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Suns, Lakers, or Nuggets late in the year is a different matter altogether.