Warriors vs. Thunder Point Spread: NBA Odds, Prediction
-
Jeremy Perry
The Golden State Warriors have been stumbling lately, going just 5-6 in their last 11 games. However, they got it together on Thursday night for what was arguably their most important game of the year: a visit to the Houston Rockets. Even without Kevin Durant in the lineup, the Warriors earned the win.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Warriors have been a lousy bet in 2019 as they’ve covered just three times in their last 14 games. They don’t look like a really hungry team these days as evidenced by losses at home to Phoenix and Boston. However, when they are motivated, they can win and cover versus any opponents. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games versus an opponent with a winning home record.
The Thunder have also struggled against the spread (and overall) as they’ve lost seven of 11 and failed to cover eight of those games. However, they are 43-20-3 ATS in their last 66 home games versus opponents with road winning percentages of over .600.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue to show the signs of a team which is bored out of its mind. The Dubs lost at home to the terrible, last-in-the-West Phoenix Suns this past Sunday, but then went to Houston to beat the Rockets without Kevin Durant. Two days before the loss at home to Phoenix, Golden State crushed Denver, the No. 2 team in the Western Conference. Prior to that, they lost by 33 at home to the Boston Celtics. These massive swings make it really tough to bet this team.
The trend that we kind of see is that Golden State gets up for the really good teams but then takes nights off against bad teams. They are 12-4 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. That’s a good sign as they’re on the road facing a quality playoff team in the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder
While the Warriors have been struggling, so have the Thunder. They’re fresh off a home loss to Indiana where they blew a 19-point third-quarter lead. Some of the slump can be tied to MVP-candidate Paul George, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The player that averaged 35.0 points per game along with 8.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists while shooting 44% from the field in February is scoring just 24.5 points per game in March while hitting just 36.3% of his shots.
The Thunder could benefit from the absence of Kevin Durant in this game as he missed the Warriors last contest and is questionable for this game. Of course, anytime Durant returns to Oklahoma City, it’s a big deal. The Thunder tend to get up for the game. Seeing him sidelined figures to be a double-edged sword as the Thunder might not be as focused on revenge in this game but they’ll get the benefit of not having to face the superstar.
Oklahoma City is just 18-12 on the season against teams with a winning record. They’ve lost three of the last four meetings at home and failed to cover three times as well. The Warriors are tough to trust but with George being impacted by the injury, they are the smarter play.
