The Golden State Warriors have been stumbling lately, going just 5-6 in their last 11 games. However, they got it together on Thursday night for what was arguably their most important game of the year: a visit to the Houston Rockets. Even without Kevin Durant in the lineup, the Warriors earned the win.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Warriors have been a lousy bet in 2019 as they’ve covered just three times in their last 14 games. They don’t look like a really hungry team these days as evidenced by losses at home to Phoenix and Boston. However, when they are motivated, they can win and cover versus any opponents. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games versus an opponent with a winning home record.

The Thunder have also struggled against the spread (and overall) as they’ve lost seven of 11 and failed to cover eight of those games. However, they are 43-20-3 ATS in their last 66 home games versus opponents with road winning percentages of over .600.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors continue to show the signs of a team which is bored out of its mind. The Dubs lost at home to the terrible, last-in-the-West Phoenix Suns this past Sunday, but then went to Houston to beat the Rockets without Kevin Durant. Two days before the loss at home to Phoenix, Golden State crushed Denver, the No. 2 team in the Western Conference. Prior to that, they lost by 33 at home to the Boston Celtics. These massive swings make it really tough to bet this team.

The trend that we kind of see is that Golden State gets up for the really good teams but then takes nights off against bad teams. They are 12-4 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. That’s a good sign as they’re on the road facing a quality playoff team in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder

While the Warriors have been struggling, so have the Thunder. They’re fresh off a home loss to Indiana where they blew a 19-point third-quarter lead. Some of the slump can be tied to MVP-candidate Paul George, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The player that averaged 35.0 points per game along with 8.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists while shooting 44% from the field in February is scoring just 24.5 points per game in March while hitting just 36.3% of his shots.

The Thunder could benefit from the absence of Kevin Durant in this game as he missed the Warriors last contest and is questionable for this game. Of course, anytime Durant returns to Oklahoma City, it’s a big deal. The Thunder tend to get up for the game. Seeing him sidelined figures to be a double-edged sword as the Thunder might not be as focused on revenge in this game but they’ll get the benefit of not having to face the superstar.

Oklahoma City is just 18-12 on the season against teams with a winning record. They’ve lost three of the last four meetings at home and failed to cover three times as well. The Warriors are tough to trust but with George being impacted by the injury, they are the smarter play.

Injuries

Golden State

Kevon Looney (C)

Prob Thurs Collarbone - 11 / 06 / 19

Kevon Looney (C)

Ques Fri Collarbone - 02 / 06 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Sun Calf - 31 / 05 / 19

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Thurs Knee - 27 / 05 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Thurs Calf - 19 / 05 / 19

Kevon Looney (C)

Prob Thurs Knee - 15 / 05 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 07 / 05 / 19

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Wed Hip - 07 / 05 / 19

Draymond Green (PF)

Prob Wed Wrist - 21 / 04 / 19

DeMarcus Cousins (C)

Prob Thurs Quadricep - 16 / 04 / 19

Oklahoma City

Hamidou Diallo (SG)

Out indefinitely Elbow - 14 / 04 / 19

Nerlens Noel (PF)

Prob Wed Quadricep - 18 / 03 / 19

Markieff Morris (PF)

Prob Sat Neck - 16 / 03 / 19

Markieff Morris (PF)

Out Thurs Neck - 12 / 03 / 19

Markieff Morris (PF)

Ques Fri Neck - 20 / 02 / 19

Dennis Schroder (PG)

Prob Fri Personal - 11 / 02 / 19

Jerami Grant (SF)

Prob Fri Ankle - 10 / 02 / 19

Alex Abrines (SG)

Out Sat Personal - 06 / 02 / 19

Abdel Nader (SF)

Prob Tues Illness - 03 / 02 / 19

Terrance Ferguson (SG)

Ques Fri Back - 29 / 01 / 19

Injuries

Golden State

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Kevon Looney (C)	Prob Thurs	Collarbone - 11 / 06 / 19	0-1	0-2	+ -
Looney is expected to play in Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors despite leaving the last game after aggravating his right first costal cartilage non-displaced fracture.
Kevon Looney (C)	Ques Fri	Collarbone - 02 / 06 / 19	1-3	3-2	+ -
Looney suffered a right first costal cartilage non-displaced fracture to his collarbone and it is unknown if he will return against the Raptors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Sun	Calf - 31 / 05 / 19	1-3	4-2	+ -
Iguodala is nursing left calf soreness but it is likely he will play against the Raptors in Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Thurs	Knee - 27 / 05 / 19	1-3	4-2	+ -
Livingston is expected to play against the Raptors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals despite a sore left knee.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Thurs	Calf - 19 / 05 / 19	2-4	5-3	+ -
Iguodala is dealing with tightness in his left calf but is expected to be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors.
Kevon Looney (C)	Prob Thurs	Knee - 15 / 05 / 19	4-4	6-4	+ -
Looney is likely to partake in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals against the Trail Blazers despite left knee soreness.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 07 / 05 / 19	4-7	7-5-1	+ -
Iguodala has a hyperextended left knee but is expected to play in Game 5 of the Western Conference second round against the Rockets.
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Wed	Hip - 07 / 05 / 19	4-7	7-5-1	+ -
Livingston is battling soreness in his left hip but is likely to suit up against the Rockets in Game 5 of the Western Conference second round.
Draymond Green (PF)	Prob Wed	Wrist - 21 / 04 / 19	7-10	11-7-1	+ -
Green is nursing a right wrist injury but is projected to suit up against the Clippers in Game 5 of the Western Conference first round.
DeMarcus Cousins (C)	Prob Thurs	Quadricep - 16 / 04 / 19	8-11	12-8-1	+ -
Cousins will be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors after recovering from a tear in his left quadriceps.

Oklahoma City

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Hamidou Diallo (SG)	Out indefinitely	Elbow - 14 / 04 / 19	2-3	2-3	+ -
Diallo is recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow and it is unknown if he will return during the playoffs.
Nerlens Noel (PF)	Prob Wed	Quadricep - 18 / 03 / 19	7-10	8-8-1	+ -
Noel was held out of the previous game with a left quadriceps contusion but is likely to play against the Raptors on Wednesday.
Markieff Morris (PF)	Prob Sat	Neck - 16 / 03 / 19	7-11	8-9-1	+ -
Morris is dealing with a neck issue but will likely be available for Saturday's matchup against the Warriors.
Markieff Morris (PF)	Out Thurs	Neck - 12 / 03 / 19	9-12	8-12-1	+ -
Morris was held out of the previous contest with soreness in his neck and will not play against the Pacers on Thursday.
Markieff Morris (PF)	Ques Fri	Neck - 20 / 02 / 19	10-20	12-17-1	+ -
Morris is sidelined with a neck injury and it is unknown if he will make his team debut Friday against the Jazz.
Dennis Schroder (PG)	Prob Fri	Personal - 11 / 02 / 19	12-20	12-19-1	+ -
Schroder has sat out the past two games due to the birth of his child but is expected back Friday against the Jazz.
Jerami Grant (SF)	Prob Fri	Ankle - 10 / 02 / 19	13-20	12-20-1	+ -
Grant has missed the previous two games with a right ankle sprain. It is expected he will be available against the Jazz on Friday.
Alex Abrines (SG)	Out Sat	Personal - 06 / 02 / 19	14-21	14-20-1	+ -
Abrines was absent from the lineup during the last game due to a personal matter and he will not play against the Rockets on Saturday.
Abdel Nader (SF)	Prob Tues	Illness - 03 / 02 / 19	15-21	15-20-1	+ -
Nader sat out the previous game due to illness but is expected to be available against the Magic on Tuesday.
Terrance Ferguson (SG)	Ques Fri	Back - 29 / 01 / 19	17-21	16-21-1	+ -
Ferguson was absent from the lineup during the last game due to mid-back spasms and it is unclear if he will be available against the Heat on Friday.

Warriors vs. Thunder Prediction