Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 5 Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jun 11, 2023

NBA: Finals-Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

Monday night could be the moment the Denver Nuggets win their first-ever NBA championship. It’s time for Game 5. Denver leads 3-1.

June 12, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
Pepsi Center
Pointspread +8 -110
Moneyline +280
Over / Under o +210
Pointspread -8 -110
Moneyline -360
Over / Under u +210

A convincing 108-95 victory in Game 4 provided the Denver Nuggets a commanding 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals, with the fifth bout back home in Colorado. The club is on the precipice of touching greatness for the first time in franchise history.

Given the circumstances and how well the Nuggets have played, it’s perhaps not so surprising that the NBA odds have them pegged as -9.0 favourites. The total is set at 208.5.

Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Betting Odds

This is familiar territory for Denver but new ground for Miami. Fans will recall that the Nuggets headed back home after taking a 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. Game 5 ended up being a barn burner, but the Nuggets got the job done in the end. This will be their third Game 5 in these playoffs. They won both, the other being against the Suns in the second round.

Miami is facing its second critical junction in these playoffs. The first was Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against Boston, mostly because it was the first time they faced elimination during their run and because they had coughed up a 3-0 series lead. This is different. Denver has hardly messed around in this series and 3-1 is more dire than 3-3.

So far in these finals, the eventual game winners have covered the spread each time. The under has connected in three of the four games – the only one won by Miami, incidentally.

Miami Heat

It has come to this. Milwaukee was supposed to be the better team but simply didn’t play like it. Nor did New York. Likewise for Boston. Denver, on the other hand, is actually playing like it and it shows.

Perhaps a road game is what the doctor ordered for the Heat. Down 3-1, they won’t have much of a choice but to win two out of three away matches anyways. Game 4 was an evolution of Game 3, with one major difference. While the lead changed hands a few times in the first half of the third tilt, Game 4 never felt in doubt. It’s starting to look like all the weaknesses that resulted in the Heat not being a high seed in the East are haunting them now. 32.0 per cent from three, in an age when the long-range shot is so important, can easily sabotage a match.

A manageable four-point halftime deficit ballooned to 13 by the end of the third quarter; that was all she wrote. Bam Adebayo continued his brilliant streak of contests with at least 20 points. Jimmy Butler was good (25 points), but “good” isn’t cutting it in these Finals. It’s telling about the discrepancy on display when three bench players tally double digits in points (Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson), yet they lose by 13.

Denver Nuggets

One more win. Just one more. Game 5 Monday night will be fascinating to watch unfold. Other than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, basically no one on this roster has championship experience. That hasn’t stopped the Nuggets at any point when facing danger in this postseason.

It is fair to argue that THE game with chip on the line has a special spice to it, a special variety of pressure. Quite literally all they need to do is be themselves. That’s what Game 4 was all about. The Nuggets are a “next man” up sort of team. On Friday, it was Aaron Gordon with a team-leading 27 points and Bruce Brown coming off the bench to add 21.

With those two playing so well, Nikola Jokic had what one might consider an “off night”, scoring 23 points and getting 12 rebounds. No triple-double this time. Even Jamal Murray was quiet, scoring only 15 points. Hitting 14 of 28 three-point shots will get you places though.

Game 5 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Nuggets?

NBA Predictions