A convincing 108-95 victory in Game 4 provided the Denver Nuggets a commanding 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals, with the fifth bout back home in Colorado. The club is on the precipice of touching greatness for the first time in franchise history.

Given the circumstances and how well the Nuggets have played, it’s perhaps not so surprising that the NBA odds have them pegged as -9.0 favourites. The total is set at 208.5.

Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Betting Odds

This is familiar territory for Denver but new ground for Miami. Fans will recall that the Nuggets headed back home after taking a 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. Game 5 ended up being a barn burner, but the Nuggets got the job done in the end. This will be their third Game 5 in these playoffs. They won both, the other being against the Suns in the second round.

Miami is facing its second critical junction in these playoffs. The first was Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against Boston, mostly because it was the first time they faced elimination during their run and because they had coughed up a 3-0 series lead. This is different. Denver has hardly messed around in this series and 3-1 is more dire than 3-3.

So far in these finals, the eventual game winners have covered the spread each time. The under has connected in three of the four games – the only one won by Miami, incidentally.

Miami Heat

It has come to this. Milwaukee was supposed to be the better team but simply didn’t play like it. Nor did New York. Likewise for Boston. Denver, on the other hand, is actually playing like it and it shows.

Perhaps a road game is what the doctor ordered for the Heat. Down 3-1, they won’t have much of a choice but to win two out of three away matches anyways. Game 4 was an evolution of Game 3, with one major difference. While the lead changed hands a few times in the first half of the third tilt, Game 4 never felt in doubt. It’s starting to look like all the weaknesses that resulted in the Heat not being a high seed in the East are haunting them now. 32.0 per cent from three, in an age when the long-range shot is so important, can easily sabotage a match.

A manageable four-point halftime deficit ballooned to 13 by the end of the third quarter; that was all she wrote. Bam Adebayo continued his brilliant streak of contests with at least 20 points. Jimmy Butler was good (25 points), but “good” isn’t cutting it in these Finals. It’s telling about the discrepancy on display when three bench players tally double digits in points (Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson), yet they lose by 13.

Denver Nuggets

One more win. Just one more. Game 5 Monday night will be fascinating to watch unfold. Other than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, basically no one on this roster has championship experience. That hasn’t stopped the Nuggets at any point when facing danger in this postseason.

It is fair to argue that THE game with chip on the line has a special spice to it, a special variety of pressure. Quite literally all they need to do is be themselves. That’s what Game 4 was all about. The Nuggets are a “next man” up sort of team. On Friday, it was Aaron Gordon with a team-leading 27 points and Bruce Brown coming off the bench to add 21.

With those two playing so well, Nikola Jokic had what one might consider an “off night”, scoring 23 points and getting 12 rebounds. No triple-double this time. Even Jamal Murray was quiet, scoring only 15 points. Hitting 14 of 28 three-point shots will get you places though.

Game 5 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Nuggets?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Heat Team Leaders

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.31
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.17
FG%	Cody Zeller 62.7
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.83
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.81

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 24.49
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.83
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 11.84
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 76.5
Steals	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1.47
Blocks	Aaron Gordon 0.75

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 26.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.86
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.87
FG%	Haywood Highsmith 61.5
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.82
Blocks	Tyler Herro 1

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 30
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.5
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 13.45
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 66.7
Steals	Jamal Murray 1.5
Blocks	Nikola Jokic 1

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Nuggets Team Leaders

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.31
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.17
FG%	Cody Zeller 62.7
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.83
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.81

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 24.49
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.83
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 11.84
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 76.5
Steals	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1.47
Blocks	Aaron Gordon 0.75

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 26.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.86
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.87
FG%	Haywood Highsmith 61.5
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.82
Blocks	Tyler Herro 1

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 30
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.5
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 13.45
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 66.7
Steals	Jamal Murray 1.5
Blocks	Nikola Jokic 1

Injuries

Miami

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Wed Foot - 06 / 06 / 23

Caleb Martin (SF)

Prob Sun Illness - 03 / 06 / 23

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Sun Foot - 03 / 06 / 23

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Mon Ankle - 28 / 05 / 23

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Sat Ankle - 24 / 05 / 23

Kevin Love (PF)

Prob Tues Ankle - 21 / 05 / 23

Omer Yurtseven (C)

Ques Fri Nose - 18 / 05 / 23

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Wed Illness - 15 / 05 / 23

Jimmy Butler (PF)

Prob Fri Ankle - 11 / 05 / 23

Haywood Highsmith (SF)

Prob Fri Knee - 11 / 05 / 23

Denver

Jamal Murray (SG)

Ques Fri Hand - 08 / 06 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Tues Illness - 15 / 05 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Thurs Illness - 11 / 05 / 23

Aaron Gordon (PF)

Prob Sun Shoulder - 09 / 04 / 23

Jeff Green (SF)

Prob Sun Face - 09 / 04 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Sun Thumb - 09 / 04 / 23

Michael Porter Jr. (PF)

Prob Sun Heel - 09 / 04 / 23

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)

Prob Sun Illness - 09 / 04 / 23

Reggie Jackson (PG)

Prob Sun Back - 09 / 04 / 23

Michael Porter Jr. (PF)

Prob Sat Heel - 07 / 04 / 23

Injuries

Miami

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Wed	Foot - 06 / 06 / 23	1-2	1-2	+ -
Zeller is tending to a right foot sprain, but it is not expected to impact his status for Game 3 of the NBA Finals against the Nuggets.
Caleb Martin (SF)	Prob Sun	Illness - 03 / 06 / 23	1-3	1-3	+ -
Martin is nursing an illness, but it is not expected to affect his status for Game 2 for the NBA Finals against the Nuggets.
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Sun	Foot - 03 / 06 / 23	1-3	1-3	+ -
Zeller is tending to a right foot sprain, but it is projected that he will face the Nuggets in Game 2 of the NBA finals.
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Mon	Ankle - 28 / 05 / 23	3-4	1-6	+ -
Vincent is nursing a left ankle sprain, and it remains to be seen if he will dress for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics.
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Sat	Ankle - 24 / 05 / 23	4-5	2-7	+ -
Vincent is hobbled by a left ankle sprain, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Kevin Love (PF)	Prob Tues	Ankle - 21 / 05 / 23	5-5	3-7	+ -
Love is nursing an ankle injury, but it is expected that he will partake in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics.
Omer Yurtseven (C)	Ques Fri	Nose - 18 / 05 / 23	6-6	4-8	+ -
Yurtseven is tending to a nasal contusion, and it is uncertain if he will be active for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals versus the Celtics.
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Wed	Illness - 15 / 05 / 23	6-6	4-8	+ -
Zeller is ailing from an illness, but it is projected that he will be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals versus the Celtics.
Jimmy Butler (PF)	Prob Fri	Ankle - 11 / 05 / 23	6-7	5-8	+ -
Butler is dealing with a right ankle sprain, but he is still expected to be in the lineup for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals versus the Knicks.
Haywood Highsmith (SF)	Prob Fri	Knee - 11 / 05 / 23	6-7	5-8	+ -
Highsmith has tendinitis in his left knee, but it is not projected to affect his status ahead of the matchup against the Knicks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Denver

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Jamal Murray (SG)	Ques Fri	Hand - 08 / 06 / 23	2-1	1-2	+ -
Murray is dealing with a left hand abrasion, and it is undetermined if he will be active for Game 4 of the NBA Finals versus the Heat.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Tues	Illness - 15 / 05 / 23	6-3	3-6	+ -
Murray is managing an illness, but it is expected that he will be available for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals versus the Lakers.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Thurs	Illness - 11 / 05 / 23	7-3	3-7	+ -
Murray is nursing an illness, but it is forecasted that he will be available for Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Suns.
Aaron Gordon (PF)	Prob Sun	Shoulder - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Gordon is dealing with right shoulder inflammation, but it is projected that he will be in the lineup for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round versus the Timberwolves.
Jeff Green (SF)	Prob Sun	Face - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Green is hampered by a facial contusion, but it is not expected to affect his status for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round versus the Timberwolves.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Sun	Thumb - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Murray is tending to a right thumb sprain, but it is not expected to affect his availability against the Timberwolves for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Michael Porter Jr. (PF)	Prob Sun	Heel - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Porter is managing a left heel injury, but it is anticipated that he will take to the court versus the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)	Prob Sun	Illness - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Caldwell-Pope is ailing from a non-COVID illness, but it is expected that the symptoms will subside in time for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Reggie Jackson (PG)	Prob Sun	Back - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Jackson is hampered by lower back pain, but it is not expected to impact his status against the Kings on Sunday.
Michael Porter Jr. (PF)	Prob Sat	Heel - 07 / 04 / 23	14-9	11-11-1	+ -
Porter Jr. is hindered by a heel ailment, but he is expected to take the court against the Jazz on Saturday.