Game 1 went to the Nuggets, as they rolled to a 104-93 victory, making it one of the few times this offseason that Miami was a significant underdog and didn’t cover.

For Game 2 the NBA odds have Denver once again as favourites and once again by a considerable margin: -8.5. The total is 215.5.

Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Betting Odds

The series table shows that Denver’s status to win it all has ballooned to -769 (previously -455). Their victory in the first match was convincing enough for the oddsmakers to judge that the most likely outcome at this stage is a Nuggets series win 4-1, priced at +203. Not that the Heat are unaccustomed to being underdogs during these playoffs, but the least expensive series result that involves them winning is 4-2 at a whopping +1066.

This is a first for the Heat in these playoffs. In all three Eastern Conference rounds they had won the first game. They even surprised Boston by taking the first two in the conference final. New opponent, new challenges, clearly. Of note, given the Heat’s fantastic success this postseason, they have never returned home to Florida trailing – they were tied 1-1 with Milwaukee and didn’t need a Game 6, tied 1-1 with New York and led 3-2, and led 2-0 and 3-2 versus Boston.

Denver has taken the initiative all four times in these playoffs. More importantly for Sunday, betters should note that they have gone undefeated at home, meaning that they’ve led 2-0 after two games in each round. Only the Lakers in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals were able to give them a little bit of trouble, but to no avail.

Miami Heat

If the Miami Heat do come back and win the NBA Finals, Game 1 can serve in the same manner as so many other Game 1’s have in the past: figuring out what kind of opposition they’re dealing with.

Miami was one of the worst three-point shooting teams during the regular season. Somehow they flipped a switch once the calendar turned to April and now lead the playoffs stats with 38.7 per cent efficiency. That came back down to earth somewhat in the first bout, as the Heat only shot 33.3 per cent. For that matter, plenty of good looks were missed, which constantly opened the door for the Nuggets, who themselves didn’t even shoot very well from beyond the arc (29.6).

Bam Adebayo had one of his best games of the playoffs, scoring 26 points and grabbing 13 boards. While the score got a bit out of hand in the third and fourth quarters, surprise element Haywood Highsmith came off the bench for 18 points of his own. The Jimmy Butler of Game 1 looked a lot like the one in the East final when Boston came back to tie the series, only scoring 13 points off 6-for-14 shooting.

Denver Nuggets

For all the hype about the Heat’s miracle run to the NBA Finals and how they overcame adversity and higher-seeded clubs, Game 1 showed what can happen when a team with a better lineup simply handles its business.

Surprise, surprise (not), Nikola Jokic earned a triple-double with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists. No look passes, overhead, he was doing it all, as he so often does. He didn’t even score very much in the first half, which was when he executed most of his assists. To that effect, the Nuggets won the points in the pain battle 46-38. At one point in the third quarter, the lead exploded to 24 points.

Jamal Murray, the Robin to Jokic’s…Joker (?) scored 26 points. Aaron Gordon, while finishing with a decent 16 points, was a key factor in getting the ball rolling early on. He was a constant threat in the paint in the first quarter until Jokic took over late.

Game 2 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Nuggets?

HEAT

Away

109

NUGGETS

Home

104

Score
Predictions

Matchup