MLB
Jordan Ramsay
March 11, 2026

2026 World Baseball Classic Odds, Prediction: Canada vs. Cuba

A spot in the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic is on the line when Canada and Cuba close out the group stage on Wednesday.

With both teams sitting at 2-1, the winner of this game will join Puerto Rico as the Group A quarterfinal teams.

Canada is a -160 favourite to win on the WBC odds, with the total pegged at 8.5.

Canada vs. Cuba WBC Betting Odds

The simple way to look at this game from both teams’ perspectives is, win and you’re in. However, let’s unpack the scenarios here, keeping in mind the first tiebreaker in the tournament is head-to-head record.

The winner will finish the group stage with a 3-1 record, matching Puerto Rico. If Canada wins the game, they will also win the group because they beat Puerto Rico in group play. If Cuba wins, Puerto Rico will take the group because they beat Cuba, who will then finish second.

These teams essentially have opposite records historically at this tournament. While Canada has never advanced to the knockout stage, Cuba has done so at every tournament. Cuba’s best result is a runner-up finish at the first WBC in 2006.

The WBC futures board still has Canada as a long shot at +6600 to win the tournament, the same price they started at. Cuba has the longest odds of all remaining teams at +10,000.

Canada

Right-hander Cal Quantrill is tabbed as Canada’s starter in this one. The 31-year-old, who signed with the Texas Rangers in the off-season, has a career MLB record of 47-46 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.334 WHIP over seven big league seasons. Canada’s pitching staff as a group hasn’t allowed a home run in the tournament, which is key against a team like Cuba that relies mainly on power hitting.

While Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor is the biggest name on the team, the hottest hitter has been Miami Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie. The 23-year-old is 6-for-11, with three RBIs, three doubles and he mashed Canada’s only home run of the tournament. Caissie is one of three Canadians hitting .375 or better.

Cuba

Cuba will counter with lefty Livan Moinelo, who plays for the NPB’s Softbank Hawks. The 30-year-old is coming off an MVP season that saw him finish with a 12-3 record while posting a 1.46 ERA with 172 strikeouts over 167 innings. Moinelo will have to prop up a Cuban pitching staff that has a 2.77 ERA in the tournament, well below the mark of Canada’s 1.67 ERA.

Getting the ball in play has been a huge issue for Cuba as their .170 batting average ranks 18th of 20 teams. Cuba has mostly relied on power, launching four home runs from four different players to Canada’s one. Yiddi Cappe, Yoelkis Guibert and Ariel Martinez each have three hits and a .333 batting average in the tournament. Everyone else has a batting average well below .200.