UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds, Prediction
It truly is a grudge match for the main event of UFC 272 on Saturday night as No. 1 welterweight contender Colby Covington steps into the Octagon to face former training partner, roommate and friend No. 6 Jorge Masvidal. These fighters are each coming in with a chip on their shoulder as they both lost title fights to welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in their last fights.
Covington is a -325 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Masvidal is a +230 underdog.
Colby Covington UFC 272 Odds
Covington (16-3 MMA record) debuted in the UFC in 2014. In that time, he has collected notable victories over perennial contenders such as Rafael dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley. He won the interim welterweight championship in July 2018 and has been one of the most consistent fighters in the division over the last four years. Covington actually fought Usman for the welterweight belt twice. He lost by fifth round TKO in December 2019 and by unanimous decision last November.
“Chaos” is one of just three interim welterweight champions in UFC history, along with the legendary Canadian Georges St-Pierre and Carlos Condit. Covington is a volume striker and pressure fighter. He’s a two-time Pac-10 Conference wrestling champion and he averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 1.54 for Masvidal.
Covington needs to take this fight to the ground where he’s been most successful in his career. Bank on him coming out with a ground-and-pound fight plan. He landed 17 takedowns and 278 shots against dos Anjos and Lawler (three against Woodley) and he dominated those fights. Getting away from that strategy hurt him against Usman, so don’t expect him to make that mistake again.
Covington has been versatile in how he wins his fights, with four victories coming by KO/TKO, four by submission and eight by decision. This is going to come down to which fighter is able to impose their style. Covington is a champion wrestler, but his striking ability is on par or below Masvidal. If this fight ends up on the ground, Covington’s chance to win rises significantly.
Jorge Masvidal UFC 272 Odds
Masvidal (35-15 MMA record) started fighting professionally in 2003 and has fought for various promotions such as AFC, Strikeforce, Bellator and World Victory Road. He made his UFC debut in April 2013, with his last three wins coming against Darren Till (second-round KO), Ben Askren (first-round KO) and Nate Diaz (third-round TKO).
Masvidal caught Askren with a flying knee, ending the fight within five seconds and earning the record for fastest fight in UFC history. He fought for the welterweight belt in his last two fights, losing to Usman both times. He lost by unanimous decision at UFC 251 in July 2020 and again by second-round KO at UFC 261 in April 2021.
“Gamebread” thrives on his feet and his best strategy is to make this a striking fight. He has a two-inch reach advantage and he lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute (4.14 for Covington) with 48 per cent accuracy (38 per cent for Covington). Masvidal landed 247 shots over his last five fights, including 112 against Diaz. That number is even more impressive when you factor in the one-shot KO of Askren. He also has a 65 per cent striking defence, compared to 55 per cent for Covington.
Masvidal clearly prefers to keep fights standing up. He’s collected 16 wins by KO/TKO and 17 by decision, compared to just two submission victories. Only one of those two submission wins came in the UFC and that was back in 2013. Masvidal is the more accurate and powerful striker in this bout. He can play this fight one of two ways: focus on power and come out hard or focus on accuracy and carefully pick his shots. Either way, he’s dangerous.
UFC 272 Prediction: Covington vs. Masvidal
Every UFC event tries to paint the fighters as enemies, but there is legitimate real life animosity between Covington and Masvidal. If this fight was three years ago, I’d back Masvidal’s striking attack, but he just looks like he’s slowing down. Covington is going to wear Masvidal down and take this fight to the ground. Covington wins by unanimous decision.
