UFC 268: Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera Prediction
A pair of ranked bantamweights hit the main card of UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday night, as No. 8 Frankie Edgar faces off against No. 13 Marlon Vera.
Vera is a slim -180 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Edgar coming in as a +135 underdog.
Frankie Edgar UFC 268 Odds
It’s been a tough road for Edgar since moving down from featherweight to bantamweight. Edgar (24-9 MMA record) won his first bantamweight bout against Pedro Munhoz last December, but his second was a disaster. The 40-year-old American was knocked out with a flying knee from Cory Sandhagen less than 30 seconds into their February fight. He has now lost three of his last four fights and four of his last nine.
Keep in mind, however, this is the former UFC lightweight champion. Edgar won the lightweight belt by taking out B.J. Penn at UFC 112 over 10 years ago. He successfully defended the lightweight belt twice and has also fought for the featherweight belt twice. But, with losses to Sandhagen, the “Korean Zombie” and Max Holloway all within the last two years, it’s clear Edgar’s best fighting days are behind him.
“The Answer” is characterized by his toughness. He has a well-rounded attack and he can be a difficult problem to solve for most opponents. Edgar likes to mix in striking that leads to a grappling scramble or vice versa. He is a crisp, clean boxer and his power holds up in the latter stages of fights.
Look for Edgar to press forward and try to dictate the pace of this fight, though it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be a little more cautious after that brutal flying knee from Sandhagen. Grappling is where he’ll have the edge. Edgar averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.88 for Vera. A majority 13 of his 24 career wins have come by decision, so don’t expect a wild knockout from Edgar.
Marlon Vera UFC 268 Odds
Vera (17-7 MMA record) has been a name to watch out for over the past few years, but he’s never really been able gain momentum and earn a title shot. The longest win streak Vera has been able to string together was an impressive five consecutive stoppages from August 2018 to October 2019. Since then, Vera has alternated wins and losses over four fights. He comes into this fight after winning by unanimous decision against Davey Grant in June.
The 28-year-old Ecuadorian badly needs a win to stay relevant in the division. He’s had his ups and downs, but he needs to start stringing together some consecutive wins. Vera handed Sean O’Malley his only career loss with a first-round knockout, but he also looked completely overmatched against Jose Aldo the following fight.
“Chito” is another well-rounded fighter who is consistently looking for a finish. He’ll mix up his attack with a combination of leg kicks, jabs, straight crosses, teep kicks to the body, etc. Vera is equally as capable of finishing his opponent with a ground-and-pound style as he is to go for a submission.
Vera’s main goal for the fight should be to do everything he can to prevent Edgar from dictating the pace. He tends to stalk his opponents and chip away at them until he can trap them against the fence and do real damage. Vera is good in the clinch with his elbows and knees and his wrestling is more than capable.
UFC 268 Prediction: Edgar vs. Vera
This fight is a crossroads for both Edgar and Vera. Is Edgar still elite? Can Vera make a move in the bantamweight rankings? Expect Vera to prove he can be dangerous in the bantamweight division. Vera wins by unanimous decision.