UFC 266 Odds: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy Prediction

Payton Matthews
September 23, 2021

Shevchenko is a massive -1575 favourite on the MMA odds with Murphy +800.

Valentina Shevchenko -1490
Lauren Murphy +900

Valentina Shevchenko UFC 266 Odds

The 33-year-old Shevchenko, from Kyrgyzstan (but now fighting out of Las Vegas), is 21-3 in her pro career. The pound-for-pound women’s queen in the MMA world is Amanda Nunes and Shevchenko is No. 2 – two of her three career losses were to Nunes but one was by controversial split decision. Most believe they will fight again sooner rather than later because there’s really no other interesting matchup currently among the women.

“I think if destiny puts this fight in front of us, most of us gonna do it. I’m kind of focused very much on my flyweight division and I just want to be better fight,” Shevchenko said recently. “And when [the third fight’s] gonna happen, I’m here.”

Since that most recent loss to Nunes at UFC 215, “Bullet” has won seven straight. She claimed the flyweight title at UFC 231 by unanimous decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk and really has been pushed only twice in title defences since, winning by unanimous decision over Liz Carmouche in August 2019 and also by unanimous decision over Jennifer Maia last November. Shevchenko, who has seven wins by TKO/KO, seven by submission and seven by decision, comes off an April second-round TKO win (elbows) over Jessica Andrade.

The average fight time for Shevchenko bouts is 16:34. The 5-foot-8 southpaw averages 3.02 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 1.99 per minute with 62 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 2.64 per 15 minutes with 63 per cent accuracy and she has a takedown defence of 77 per cent.

Lauren Murphy UFC 266 Odds

Murphy, 38, is from Alaska and is 15-4 in her career. Her father was killed in a plane crash when she was 11, which led to some drug and alcohol abuse. She only got into MMA because she was looking for a hobby for her young son Max.

She is ranked No. 3 in the division and is a former Invicta FC bantamweight champion. “Lucky” enters on a five-fight winning streak, last in the Octagon in June and taking a split decision over Joanne Calderwood, who is No. 6 in the flyweight division. Murphy was around +150 for that bout, but a win Saturday would be one of the biggest upsets in UFC history.

Murphy has eight wins by KO/TKO, six by decision and one by submission with all four losses by decision. That she wins this bout by submission is +2000, by decision +1200 and by KO/TKO/DQ +1000.

Her fights average 14:07. She lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.25 per minute with 61 per cent defence. Murphy’s takedown average is 1.16 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy and her takedown defence is 70 percent.

Shevchenko has a three-inch height advantage but both fighters have a reach of 67 inches. The over-under is 2.5 rounds with the over a slight favourite.