Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka: UFC 275 Odds, Prediction
The busy UFC summer kicks off in Singapore on Saturday with UFC 275. It’s a stacked card with two championship fights, including Glover Teixeira defending his light heavyweight belt for the first time when he takes on No. 2 contender Jiri Prochazka in the main event.
The challenger, Prochazka, actually opened as a -225 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Teixeira is a +175 underdog.
Glover Teixeira UFC 275 Odds
At 42-years-old, Teixeira (33-7 MMA record) became the oldest first-time champion in UFC history when he submitted Jan Blachowicz in the second-round at UFC 267 last October to claim the light heavyweight belt. Teixeira first challenged for UFC gold in April 2014, losing to Jon Jones by unanimous decision. He enters UFC 275 on a six-fight win streak, including finishes over Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos and Blachowicz across his last three outings.
Teixeira was a knockout artist earlier in his career, picking up 18 victories by KO/TKO. More recently he’s focused on his grappling ability and has 10 career submission wins. The vast majority of his fights, particularly victories, have not gone the distance, with only five of his 33 career wins coming by decision.
Teixeira’s grappling ability is what separates him from his opponent. The Brazilian averages 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Prochazka averages 0.98. He is also averaging 1.09 submissions per 15 minutes, while Prochazka only has two career submission victories.
Teixeira’s game plan has to be to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible. He’s fighting an opponent 14 years younger than him, who has a longer reach and makes his living from knockouts, so getting into a standup fight is just too risky. If Teixeira can close the gap quickly and punish Prochazka against the wall, he has a chance to get this fight on the ground where he has a distinct advantage. Dragging this into a long fight against Prochazka is not a good idea for the champ.
Jiri Prochazka UFC 275 Odds
Prochazka (28-3-1 MMA record) was one of the best fighters in the world outside of the UFC before his first fight in the promotion at UFC 251 in July 2020. He starred as the light heavyweight champion in the Japanese Rizin Fighting Federation and he is currently riding a 12-fight win streak, with the last 10 of those victories coming by KO/TKO.
“BJP” is the epitome of a striker. He has picked up 25 of his 28 career victories by KO/TKO, while two wins came by submission and one by decision. Prochazka debuted in the UFC with a second-round knockout win over Volkan Oezdemir that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. His only other UFC fight was another second-round knockout win, this time against Dominick Reyes in May 2021. That victory earned him Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses.
Prochazka holds a four-inch reach advantage in this fight and his athletic ability combined with his large frame and fluid fighting ability make him a dangerous opponent for anyone. The one issue is his wild and messy attack style that leaves obvious defensive holes. The Czech fighter averages 7.19 significant strikes per 15 minutes, but he also absorbs 6.8 strikes. That compares to 3.72 significant strikes per 15 minutes for Teixeira, with 3.83 absorbed.
Prochazka needs to come out hard in this fight and keep the champ on his toes. His unorthodox and high-paced fighting style keeps opponents guessing, so he needs to take advantage of that against a veteran fighter like Teixeira. If Prochazka can hammer away at Teixeira and keep this a standup fight, he should have no problem taking the belt. The longer this fight goes, the better shot Prochazka has at winning.
UFC 275 Prediction: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
There was a three-year period in Teixeira’s career where it looked like his best days were over. Fortunately, since then, Teixeira rattled off win after win to finally become the light heavyweight champion at 42-years-old. That reign doesn’t look like it will last, however. Prochazka is a punishing striker in the prime of his career and it’s difficult to imagine him losing to an aging grappler like Teixeira. Prochazka wins by second-round KO/TKO.
