-
Edgar Chaput
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu: UFC Vegas 78 Odds, Prediction
This featherweight tilt pits the American Cub Swanson against a rival from north of the 49th parallel, Calgary native Hakeem Dawodu. Talk about two perfect nicknames for UFC fighters. Swanson is known as “Killer” and Dawodu as “Mean.”
It’s the Canuck whom the MMA odds favour, as Dawodu currently sits at -235 to Swanson’s +175.
Cub Swanson UFC Vegas 78
Hailing from Palm Springs, California, the 39-year-old has switched weight divisions a lot in recent years. He was a featherweight from 2006 to 2021 when he transferred to bantamweight to one fight in 2022, and now reverts back to feather for this upcoming match with Dawodu.
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, Swanson holds a solid 28-13 win-loss record in his professional career. That said, the last couple of years have been up and down. Back in May 2021 he went toe-to-toe with Giga Chikadze at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad but fell via TKO. That was followed by a bout versus Darren Elkins in December 2021, which he won, also courtesy of a TKO. In 2022, his only fight all year came in October at UFC Fight Night 212 when he was scheduled to battle against Jonathan Martinez, a contest he lost, again via TKO.
Despite that both contestants measuring the same (five feet, eight inches), the American is much lighter, weighing in at 135.0 pounds to the Canuck’s 149.5 pounds. Swanson has neither an advantage in arm or leg reach (70 inches to 73.5, and 38 inches to 40.5, respectively). With so many recent fights decided by TKO, it comes as no surprise that 46 per cent of his wins are earned that way, compared to 39 per cent via decision and 14 by submission. We’re dealing with two fighters that go for a lot of significant strikes per minute (4.68 for Swanson and 5.33 for Dawodu). Even their accuracy is identical at 50 per cent. Swanson does however attempt more takedowns, averaging 1.09 every 15 minutes to his rival’s zero.
Hakeem Dawodu UFC Vegas 78
There aren’t a ton of Canadians earning their spurs in UFC, so fans north of the border have something special to get excited about this Saturday night. The 32-year-old specializes in Muay Thai and trains out of Calgary.
Much like his opposite number this weekend, “Mean” hasn’t fought very much either since 2022. That year he mustered two bouts. The first came in February at UFC Fight Night 200 when a decision went in his favour against Michael Trizano. Afterwards came an eventful UFC 279 versus Julian Erosa. Unfortunately, Dawodu came in three and a half pounds too heavy, which cost him 30 per cent of his purse. He also lost the fight by decision. So far in 2023 only one contest was scheduled, UFC 289 in June against Lucas Almeida, but was scrapped.
As already established, Dawodu has a significant weight advantage compared to his American foe. He also claims the majority of his victories by KO or TKO (58 per cent), with the balance coming via favourable decisions. Both he and Swanson land a lot of major hits every 60 seconds, not to mention that they absorb comparable figures (3.15 for Dawodu to 3.73 for Swanson). Youth may play a role in what decides this fight. The Canadian spends on average more time in the octagon. His fights last 13:19 whereas those of his rival have a duration of 11:27.
