Here’s how the Toronto Blue Jays’ schedule compares to other AL wild-card contenders
The Toronto Blue Jays’ push for the playoffs looks like it will come down to the wire.
While Toronto is only one game back of the final wild-card spot in the American League, five other teams are also less than three games out of that last spot.
With almost no room for error, the Blue Jays are entering the most important week of the season as they hit the road for series’ against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.
Luckily for the Jays, outside of those series’ against the Rays and Yankees, Toronto’s remaining schedule will be played against teams that all have records below .500.
Here’s what the Blue Jays’ schedule looks like for the rest of the season.
Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of MLB game odds, MLB futures and MLB specials and props.
Strength of schedule
Strength of schedule is obviously a major factor in determining the wild-card field. Toronto is in a good spot here as they have the third-easiest strength of schedule out of the seven teams that are still in the hunt for the third AL wild-card spot.
The Jays also sit middle-of-the-pack on FanGraphs’ SOS metrics, which is based off how many games opponents are projected to win, rather than their actual record. The chart below gives a schedule overview of all the teams in the wild-card hunt.
| Team | Strength of Schedule | FanGraphs SOS |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | .452 | .472 |
| Seattle Mariners | .471 | .482 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | .480 | .494 |
| Minnesota Twins | .487 | .486 |
| Detroit Tigers | .492 | .495 |
| Texas Rangers | .499 | .495 |
| Baltimore Orioles | .509 | .502 |
Home vs. road splits
It’s pretty simple when it comes to home vs. road splits. The majority of teams have a better record at home because of basic factors like familiarity, regular routine and more rest.
Unfortunately, Toronto has the least remaining home games of the seven wild-card contenders, although they have one of the better road winning percentages.
| Team | Remaining Home Games | Remaining Road Games | Home Win% | Road Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 22 | 15 | .542 | .440 |
| Seattle Mariners | 19 | 18 | .532 | .413 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 19 | 18 | .468 | .492 |
| Minnesota Twins | 19 | 18 | .508 | .452 |
| Detroit Tigers | 19 | 19 | .508 | .459 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 19 | .516 | .468 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 15 | 21 | .500 | .466 |
Schedule against other wild-card contenders
The Blue Jays’ schedule against other wild-card contenders is absolutely crucial. These games are essentially twice as valuable because Toronto can stack up more wins while preventing the teams they are chasing from winning.
This could be a big advantage for Toronto because they have the most games against other wild-card contenders, giving them more opportunities to catch their opponents.
| Team | Games vs. Wild-Card Contenders |
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 18 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 13 |
| Detroit Tigers | 13 |
| Minnesota Twins | 12 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 9 |
| Texas Rangers | 9 |
| Seattle Mariners | 6 |
Verdict
With 36 games remaining and sitting only one game out of a wild-card spot, the Blue Jays enter the week at +310 to make the playoffs. That’s great value when you consider Toronto’s recent stretch of good play along with their favourable schedule to end the regular season.