MLB Power Rankings, World Series Odds: Baltimore Orioles Protect Nest, Stay Number One

Who can slow down the Baltimore Orioles or Atlanta Braves? Each side has proven its worth throughout the regular season. As the calendar is about to switch from August to September, those are the clubs nobody should want to play. Then again, there are other squads rising in the ranks at just the right time, as shall be revealed in the latest Power Rankings.

Check out our American League, National League, Interleague odds, and MLB Props for all your baseball action.

Data collected is as of Monday, August 28 prior to game time starts.

Batter up!

MLB Power Rankings

1. Baltimore Orioles (81-49, spread: 80-50)

As the hip kids would say, the Orioles are crushing it this season. Few expected them to perform at the level they have. The team has held on to first place in the AL East for weeks, although they’re still closely trailed by the Rays. Closer Felix Bautista is on a 15-Day IL as of this past Sunday, which puts a wrinkle into the club’s plans of securing a division crown. Still, this is team with plenty of weapons to weather the storm.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (80-49, spread: 73-56)

We wrote glowing comments about the Atlanta Braves in the introduction yet have the Dodgers in second place in the Power Rankings. What gives? Namely, the record against the spread is among the best in the majors in addition to the Dodgers being one of only four clubs with at least 80 wins. L.A. is also cranking the second-most home runs with 200. Mookie Betts has 35 and Max Muncy 30.

3. Cincinnati Reds (68-64, spread: 83-49)

The Reds climb from fifth to third, not so much on the strength of the outright wins and losses – although they remain a few games above .500 – but rather for their extraordinary performance against the spread. Rarely has a team with a meandering record done so well ATS. It’s been like this all season, so unless Cincy takes a massive tumble during the six remaining weeks, this is who they are. Spencer Steer leads the team with 71 RBIs.

4. Atlanta Braves (84-45, spread: 67-62)

Atlanta is the most well-rounded club in baseball. They have ace pitchers like Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder, as well as incredible hitters like Ronald Acuna Jr and Austin Riley. Small wonder that they have the best record in MLB. On the flip side, they never found their stride vis-à-vis spreads this season, hence why we cannot put them any higher than fourth, and even that might be generous given how important spread covering is for this exercise.

5. Texas Rangers (73-57, spread: 73-57)

Are the wheels falling off in Arlington? That may be too dramatic a question. Texas is still a solid baseball team, but the operation isn’t running as smoothly as it did in the middle of the summer. In fact, as of this writing, they’re second in the AL West, having been jumped over by the Seattle Mariners. The bats are strong though, with the Rangers ranking second in hitting average (.268). Nathaniel Lowe leads with .280.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks (69-62, spread: 71-60)

The Arizona Diamondbacks make a comeback by flirting with the top five. Going 10-2 in the last 12 games has helped a lot, with that streak beginning almost from the moment we finished writing the last edition of the Power Rankings. There are also only five teams with 70 spreads covered as of this writing, and Arizona is one of them. Time will tell if this is a flash in the pan or a serious playoff push.

7. Seattle Mariners (74-56, spread: 69-61)

A fortnight ago there was a hint that Seattle was coming back. Now it feels more official. To be clear, the Mariners are 12-1 in their previous 13 contests which includes two sweeps of the lowly Royals. However, there is a sweep of the Astros in Houston mixed in there as well, so this feels legitimate. A lot of ink is spilled to wax poetic about Luis Castillo, but Julio Rodriguez is having a great year at the plate (.281 average, 84 RBIs).

8. Tampa Bay Rays (80-52, spread: 67-65)

It wouldn’t be right to say that the mighty have fallen. Despite the bumps in the road, the truth is Tampa Bay has reached 80 wins. Furthermore, the fight for first place in the AL East is incredibly close. On the flip, the Rays have a mediocre record against the spread, so this is as high as we can rank them. Yandy Diaz is hitting a mesmerizing .326, although he’s currently listed as day-to-day and hasn’t played since Friday.

9. Chicago Cubs (69-61, spread: 67-63)

The Cubs don’t move much, going from seventh to ninth. It turns out they’re having a much better campaign than the forecast expected. The record against the spread isn’t sensational, but it’s good enough to have some faith in them. Cody Bellinger is playing lights out with the bat, hitting .321, good for fourth in MLB.

10. Boston Red Sox (69-62, spread: 67-64)

Boston gets to remain in the top ten by virtue of being among the last teams with a winning record in the standings and ATS. From here on out things get a little wild in the rankings. The Red Sox are also a bit unpredictable. They won two of three last week in Houston, which was quite impressive. Then they came back home to play the Dodgers but lost two of three. Boston has four hitters with at least 120 hits: Masataka Yoshida (131), Justin Turner (131), Alex Verdugo (128), and Rafael Devers (128).

11. Milwaukee Brewers (73-57, spread: 60-70)

It’s the second exercise in a row for which we feel rather bad about placing the Brewers so low, relatively speaking. The club has definitely emerged as one of the more interesting rivals in the National League and look good to capture the Central crown if they can handle the Cubs this week. But that ATS record is a cause for concern, hence their place just outside the top 10.

12. Houston Astros (74-58, spread: 66-66)

Uh-oh. Things have stagnated a bit in Houston since we last wrote about them. Kyle Tucker continues his marvellous season with 97 runs batted in, but the club overall is only 4-6 in their last 10 outings. What’s more, two teams against whom they should have proven their worth (Mariners and Red Sox) obliterated them in games at home. Glory is earned in October, not August, but now doesn’t feel like the time for cracks to show in the armour.

13. Washington Nationals (61-70, spread: 75-56)

With barely over a month left in the regular season, the Washington Nationals have essentially solidified their spot in the top half of the league with a beguiling ATS record. This is despite that the product on the field has been less than stellar all year long. Lane Thomas is completing a decent season by batting .283 with 69 RBIs and 20 HRs.

14. Toronto Blue Jays (70-61, spread: 60-71)

The flip-flopping continues between clubs with good outright win-loss record records and poor ATS ones and vice versa. The Blue Jays are losing matches at the worst possible time. For most of the summer, they held on to the last Wild Card spot. That ended last week with a miserable visit to Baltimore and a disappointing weekend at home to the Guardians. With Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman injured, things will only get tougher.

15. Philadelphia Phillies (72-58, spread: 56-74)

Kudos to the Phillies. Things were looking dreary in May and June, but here we are in the leadup to Labour Day weekend and Philly is 3.5 games up in the race for the Wild Card. Unfortunately, they can’t be depended on to cover the spread, so they lag at the midway point of the Power Rankings. They’re a top-five club for batting average and hits. Nick Castellanos has reached base with the bat 142 times and Bryson Stott 141 times.

16. Detroit Tigers (59-71, spread: 67-62)

Some things never change. In nearly every edition of the Power Rankings, the AL Central has been the last division to send a team in, and it’s usually been in the bottom half or around the midway point. Detroit has the best ATS record in a mediocre division, so here they are as the “best” AL Central squad.

17. Minnesota Twins (68-63, spread: 62-69)

Another tradition in this exercise has been that once the first AL Central franchise makes it in, the floodgates are open for most of the others to follow in quick succession. Hence, here are the Twins. To their credit, they’ve successfully fended off Cleveland’s “challenge” for top spot and now possess a solid six-game advantage. Sonny Gray is having a nice season with his stellar 3.06 ERA. By the way, the Twins and Guardians start a series on Monday night.

18. San Francisco Giants (67-63, spread: 63-66)

The Giants are doing Giants things. In other words, playing the season-long roller coaster of looking decent before crashing back to earth again. Rinse and repeat. It’s a testament to how tight the NL Wild Card race is that with a win-loss tally only four games above .500, San Francisco is but a game and a half out. Also, in a testament to the kind of season it’s been for the Giants, the pitcher with the best ERA, Logan Webb (3.51), is under .500 (9-10).

19. Miami Marlins (66-65, spread: 58-73)

Yes, it looks as though Luis Arraez is going to hold on to the top spot as MLB’s best hitter (.350). That said, the team has stumbled in the last month or so and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. They have played a bit better this season, planting the seed of hope in Miami that maybe the franchise is on the cusp of turning its fortune around.

20. Cleveland Guardians (62-69, spread: 66-65)

Cleveland has started to fall further behind the Twins in the AL Central. It’s not as though the Guardians didn’t have their share of chances to overtake the Twins. We open the bottom third of the Power Rankings with them since they are the last team to have a record against the spread that hovers around .500 and is still relatively high in the standings in its division.

21. Chicago White Sox (52-79, spread: 65-66)

Another team that’s earned some respect ATS despite performances on the diamond is the Chicago White Sox. When you play the Oakland Athletics four times at home and lose twice, your season isn’t going great. They have Luis Robert Jr. to hold on to (.268, 69 RBIs, 34 HRs), although there were trade rumours this summer, so it will be interesting to see how much longer he wears a White Sox uniform.

22. San Diego Padres (61-70, spread: 63-68)

The next few rankings might seem a bit schizophrenic, but we’re in the bottom ten and some clubs have drastically different records when comparing outright wins and losses with performances against the spread. As for San Diego, both are comparable. The problem all season has been at bat. From a pitching perspective, the club ranks fifth in the majors in ERA (3.85) yet is basically out of the running for the postseason.

23. Colorado Rockies (49-81, spread: 64-66)

It’s a terrible win-loss tally, we know. But for some reason, the Colorado Rockies do okay with spreads. It would be nice if this franchise got itself out of the doldrums for once. Every year it feels like a club no one pays attention to, but then again, they don’t accomplish anything to change that perception. They have three starting pitchers with ERAs of 5.00 and above. Three!

24. New York Yankees (62-68, spread: 61-69)

This truly is a case of how the mighty have fallen. Not since 1992 have the Yankees completed a regular season campaign under .500, but they are in serious danger of repeating the feat in 2023. Hitting has been a huge problem this season. Only Oakland has a worse team batting average. A prolonged absence from Aaron Judge didn’t help matters, but few other players stepped up.

25. Pittsburgh Pirates (58-73, spread: 64-67)

Pittsburgh had started the season rather brightly, but it turned out to be a flash in the pan. Nothing stands out about this team, which goes a long way to explaining why they’re so rarely featured in the MLB conversation. That said, closer David Bednar has compiled some nice numbers this season, especially his 28 saves to date.

26. Los Angeles Angels (63-68, spread: 61-70)

Just when things couldn’t get any worse, Shohei Ohtani injuries himself while pitching, thus putting his ability of being a two-way player in doubt. We won’t write for the millionth time “Shohei needs to leave this team” but… This is a sinking ship and it’s sinking fast. It’s most likely time for a major reboot.

27. St. Louis Cardinals (56-75, spread: 62-69)

As the losses piled up, the Cardinals became a selling team at the trade deadline. That’s not to say they don’t have good players around whom a brighter future can be built. Both Paul Goldschmidt (.278, 22 HRs, 69 RBIs) and Nolan Arenado (.276, 26 HRs, 87 RBIs) have had solid seasons at bat.

28. Oakland Athletics (38-93, spread: 62-69)

Why would we put the Oakland A’s over the New York Mets despite that the latter has had a better season, at least as per the standings? For one, Oakland is much better against the spread. Second, they’re much better against the spread with one of the tiniest payrolls in MLB. Looking at the major statistical categories, there is one for which the A’s rank high: stolen bases with 121. Esteury Ruiz leads the team with 51 all to himself.

29. New York Mets (60-71, spread: 53-78)

Talk about a season that’s blown up in a franchise’s face. Nothing has gone right for the Mets in 2023. Too many injuries, players underperforming, and shiny, expensive signings not paying dividends. Even when someone puts up some decent numbers, the other figures are out of whack. Case in point, Pete Alonso has smashed 39 HRs, which is quite good, but his batting average is a measly .221.

30. Kansas City Royals (41-91, spread: 54-78)

Two weeks ago we wrote about a nice little winning streak Kansas City was on. Perhaps they would finish the campaign with some sense of honour and get out of the Power Rankings basement. Right on cue they lost a bunch of games in the interim and have continued to fail spectacularly against the spread.