Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: ALCS Game 7 Odds, Prediction
We have rare winner-take-all baseball Monday night with a trip to the World Series on the line as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS. Expect many, many pitchers. Toronto is -120 on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5.
Betting Analysis
The 2025 World Series will start on Friday with the National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers awaiting, and they will be solid Fall Classic favourites over either Seattle or Toronto. The Mariners are eyeing their first-ever pennant – the only active MLB franchise to never reach a World Series. This is the first Game 7 in franchise history, and makes it quite a night in the city of Seattle with the NFL’s Seahawks playing at home in the late game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader vs. Houston.
We all know when the last time the Blue Jays were in the World Series, but they have played just one Game 7 in their history: the 1985 ALCS, a 6-2 loss at Exhibition Stadium to the Kansas City Royals.
This marks the 22nd Game 7 overall in LCS history and first in MLB since 2023 when both the ALCS and NLCS went the distance. The road teams (Texas and Arizona) won both of those. It also marks the sixth winner-take-all game in these playoffs, tied for the second most in MLB history.
Seattle Mariners
Let’s be clear in that it really does not matter who either team starts on the mound as nearly everyone will be available with the season on the line. If either club has used fewer than, say, six pitchers by the end of tonight, and that might be conservative, it’s a surprise.
Josh Naylor’s solo homer was about the only bright spot of Sunday’s 6-2 loss for Seattle as the ALCS returned to Toronto for Game 6. This will be the Mariners’ fourth winner-take-all game in franchise history, and they are 3-0: All in Game 5s of AL Division Series, including this year’s 15-inning epic vs. Detroit.
Seattle thus becomes just the eighth team to play both a five-game LDS and seven-game LCS in the same year. Only two of the previous eight reached the World Series.
The Mariners will turn at first to hard-throwing righty George Kirby tonight. He was very solid in two ALDS starts vs. the Tigers but blown up for eight runs and eight hits over four innings in losing Game 3 of this series at home.
George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Andres Gimenez all homered off Kirby. His road ERA during the regular season was 5.16 in 11 starts. Likely a very short leash.
Toronto Blue Jays
The road team won the first four games of the ALCS but now the home team has won the past two thanks to Toronto’s 6-2 season-saving victory on Sunday. Rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage carried a shutout into the sixth inning, while Addison Barger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered. The Jays extended their club-record to 19 home runs this post-season.
Sunday was also the team’s 100th win of the year obviously including playoffs, marking the fourth time ever reaching triple digits. Yesavage might be the only pitcher on the roster who isn’t available tonight.
Teams with home-field advantage who trailed a seven-game series, 3-2, have come back to win the series 21 of 56 times, including eight of 20 times in the LCS. The last team overall to do it was Houston in the 2021 World Series vs. Atlanta. It also was the last team to do it in the ALCS, coming in 2017 vs. the Yankees.
Veteran righty Shane Bieber will be tonight’s starting pitcher for the Jays. He wasn’t good in his lone ALDS start in New York but got the win in Game 3 in Seattle, allowing two runs over six with eight strikeouts. As a former Cy Young winner, he likely has a bit longer leash than Seattle’s Kirby does.
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