Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -130 favourite to win on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
A couple of weeks ago, we would have said that Arizona was a contender in the NL West Division. Oh, the Diamondbacks weren’t likely to win it with the superpower Los Angeles Dodgers there, but they had a chance. Alas, then the Snakes lost former NL Cy Young Award winner and ace Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery that not only ended his 2025 campaign but will cost Burnes most if not all of 2026.
As it was, Arizona had stretched the budget by winning the free-agent derby for Burnes in the offseason by signing him to a six-year, $210 million contract. Reportedly, both the Blue Jays and the San Francisco Giants had offered Burnes more, but the taxes Burnes would have paid in Canada and California compared to Arizona played into his eventual decision.
The Diamondbacks are still capable of getting an NL Wild-Card berth as they sit 3.5 games out of the final spot and are priced +160 to make the playoffs with no at -200. But without Burnes, they almost surely aren’t good enough to make a surprise run to the World Series as they did in 2023.
Toronto visited Arizona last season and went 1-2. The Diamondbacks were last at Rogers Centre in 2023 and were swept three games.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona had a chance to sweep a six-game homestand on Sunday but lost 8-2 to NL West-rival San Diego. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez stayed hot with a homer, his fifth in the past eight games and team-leading 21st of the year. The Diamondbacks have homered in 10 consecutive games, the longest current streak in MLB. They have 18 homers since June 5 and are 6-4 in those games.
Outfielder Corbin Carroll, the former NL Rookie of the Year, is the only player in MLB with at last five triples, 10 doubles, 20 homers, 40 RBIs and 10 steals. Some teams will go a full season without winning a game they trailed in the ninth inning. Already in 2025, the Diamondbacks have come back from at least a four-run deficit three times in the ninth to win.
Righty Brandon Pfaadt (8-4, 5.50 ERA) takes the hill Tuesday. The 26-year-old has really struggled on the road with a 6.94 ERA and has gone more than six innings just once all season anywhere. Pfaadt will be making his first career start vs. the Blue Jays. Andres Gimenez has seen him and has a single in two at-bats. Arizona is 16-17 on the road.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays completed an interesting nine-game trip on Sunday at 5-4 as they won two of three at Minnesota to start it and then swept three in St. Louis before being swept three in Philadelphia – outscored 22-6.
In Sunday’s 11-4 loss to the Phillies, rookie outfielder Will Robertson made his big-league debut for the Jays and was 1-for-4 with an RBI and two strikeouts. The 27-year-old was promoted from Triple-A Buffalo on June 11 after Nathan Lukes was placed on the injured list. Another outfielder, Alan Roden, avoided serious injury Sunday after smashing head-first into the left-field wall while making a highlight-reel catch in the fifth inning.
Righty Chris Bassitt (7-3, 3.70 ERA) starts on the mound Tuesday. He won a third straight start last Tuesday, allowing four runs over seven in St. Louis. It was the third time in the past four Bassitt allowed at least four earned. But he has been significantly better at home at 5-0 with a 2.48 ERA in seven starts. Bassitt has made five career starts vs. Arizona and is 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA. Eugenio Suarez has had some success against him, going 3-for-8 with two doubles and a homer. The Jays are 22-13 at home.
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