2025 MLB Odds: Toronto Blue Jays +475 to complete ALCS comeback over Seattle Mariners
The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to make history after dropping the first two games of the ALCS at home against the Seattle Mariners.
No team has ever won a championship series in the American League or the National League when dropping the first two games at home. In addition, teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 series have advanced 78 of 93 times (83.8 per cent).
It’s not all doom and gloom, however, as Toronto can look to recent history for inspiration.
Just two years ago the Arizona Diamondbacks successfully completed an 0-2 series comeback against the Phillies in the NLDS to reach the World Series.
The Blue Jays enter Game 3 as +475 favourites to win the ALCS, while Seattle is a heavy -650 favourite.
Here are three things the Blue Jays need to get back into the ALCS.
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More offence
Toronto has produced just four runs in two games against the Mariners after exploding for 34 runs over their four-game ALDS victory over the Yankees.
In Game 1, the Jays managed just one run on two hits and they didn’t have a hit after the second inning. Game 2 wasn’t much better with three runs on six hits and three of those hits came from Nathan Lukes.
In some of the most glaring stats, Seattle is leading Toronto 4-1 in ALCS home runs, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho and Andreas Gimenez are all hitless in the series.
Offensive depth has been the key to the Jays’ success all season and they simply need players like Guerrero to step up and produce like he did against the Yankees.
Reliable relief pitching
Relief pitching was circled as Toronto’s biggest concern heading into the playoffs and with the lineup not hitting, a reliable bullpen is more important than ever.
Unfortunately, the Blue Jays relievers haven’t been up to the task as Louis Varland gave up a dagger three-run homer in the fifth inning of Game 2, his third home run allowed this postseason.
Even when Varland left the game, three more relievers gave up runs to put the game out of reach. Mason Fluharty allowed one earned run and Braydon Fisher allowed two, while Yariel Rodriguez walked three batters.
Relief pitching can be the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs and Toronto is currently the poster child for that philosophy.
Improved defence
Varsho is a Gold Glove winner, but he took a few uncharacteristically odd routes in Game 2, leading to missed catches that he normally makes. The team need more reliability from their centre-fielder.
Another big mistake on Monday came from the infield, with Gimenez making a throwing error at the start of the fifth inning. It was a rare mistakes from the Blue Jays, who ranked fourth in the majors during the regular season with 51 defensive runs saved.
Toronto is a better club than they’ve shown in the first two games of the ALCS, but time is running out to save their season.
First pitch for Game 3 of the ALCS in Seattle is set for 8:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Here’s our complete game preview and prediction.
