Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
Down 2-0 in the ALCS, the Toronto Blue Jays face essentially a must-win Game 3 as the series shifts to Seattle on Wednesday night, but the AL West champion Mariners are -130 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 7.0.
Betting Analysis
After finishing with the American League’s best home record during the regular season and easily winning both ALDS games at Rogers Centre against the New York Yankees, the Blue Jays have to be wondering what hit them in the first two games of the ALCS with Seattle winning them by a combined score of 13-4. The Mariners were three games below .500 away during the regular season. But no team has been better at home since the trade deadline at the end of July than Seattle, which is 38-22 at T-Mobile Park since, including 2-1 in the ALDS.
On the updated series line, Seattle is -650 and Toronto +475. That it ends in four games is the +225 leader, and that it gets to a seventh game is +300. Seattle’s Jorge Polanco has done plenty of damage in the first two games and is the -130 favourite to lead all players in RBIs this series as well as the +250 leader for most hits. The 32-year-old is 4-for-9 in the series with a homer and five knocked in.
Teams taking Game 1 in any best-of-7 series have gone on to win the series 64.9 per cent of the time, while clubs dropping the first two at home have come back only 15 of 93 times (16.1 per cent). In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning both Games 1 and 2 on the road have prevailed 24 of 27 times. The last team to rally from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-7 was Arizona against Philadelphia in the 2023 NLCS, while the last team to do it after dropping the first two at home was the New York Yankees against Atlanta in the 1996 World Series.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto was 40-41 away during the regular season and 1-1 at Yankee Stadium in the ALDS. Will Anthony Santander be available for Game 3? Back trouble forced the slugger to be scratched from Game 2, and forced Davis Schneider into the lineup.
That also meant a very short bench for John Schneider. If Santander would need to be replaced on the roster, Joey Loperfido would likely be next up and has remained with the Blue Jays to stay ready just in case. The Jays have to get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going as he’s 0-for-7 in the ALCS after terrorizing the Yankees in the ALDS.
Wednesday could be the last start in a Jays uniform for righty Shane Bieber, who was acquired at the trade deadline from Cleveland and expected to hit free agency this winter via option. In Game 3 of ALDS at Yankee Stadium, the former AL Cy Young winner made his first playoff start since 2022, and it didn’t go well as he allowed three runs and five hits over 2.2 innings of a no-decision.
Bieber was limited to seven RS starts coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t see Seattle. Jorge Polanco has seen him the most of any Mariners batter in the regular season and is 8-for-28 with six strikeouts. Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-18 with a double and homer.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle is two wins from the franchise’s first World Series and this is the team’s first ALCS home game since 2001, so it should be a crazy atmosphere in Game 3. In the Game 2 victory, slugger Josh Naylor, from Mississauga, became the first Canadian-born MLB player to hit a postseason homer as a visitor in Canada; he’s the fourth Canadian-born player to homer in Canada during the playoffs, joining Blue Jays players Russell Martin, Michael Saunders and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home runs have been a big reason why Seattle is up 2-0 in the series thus far.
It’s hard-throwing righty George Kirby scheduled on the mound for Game 3. He didn’t get a decision in two ALDS starts vs. Detroit, allowing three total runs and nine hits over 10.0 innings with 14 strikeouts and just one walk. Few pitchers in the majors have better control than the 27-year-old. Both those Tigers games were in Seattle, and Kirby was much better at home during the regular season at 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA. He missed Toronto this year. He’s 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three career RS starts against the Blue Jays. Anthony Santander has had some success off him career at 6-for-15 with two homers.
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