As the calendar prepares to flip to the final month of the regular season, Aaron Judge is once again chasing history. The Yankees slugger leads the majors with 51 home runs and he is on pace to break the American League single-season record of 62 home runs, which he set two years ago.

With 30 games left on the schedule, can Judge break his own home run record?

Chasing 63 home runs

Oddsmakers have set both the Over and Under for 62.5 home runs at -110, suggesting it’s a complete tossup of whether Judge will once again break the AL home run record.

Judge will need *checks notes* 12 home runs in New York’s final 30 games to break the record. That’s a pace of 0.4 home runs per game, or basically a home run every second game. That seems like a big ask, but it’s actually just a tick off the 0.39 home runs per game Judge has averaged to this point.

The way it’s going right now, Judge will finish with exactly 63 home runs.

Aaron Judge home run pace

Judge has a great shot to break the AL single-season home run record, but could he go one step further and take down Barry Bonds’ major league record of 73 dingers? I’ve already gone over Judge’s home run pace for the season, but it’s important to remember he got off to a slow start which skewed his home run average lower.

Judge has 45 home runs over his last 95 games, including 16 over his last 28 games. He even had a stretch last week that saw him go yard in four straight games while finishing with seven home runs in six games.

You can also expect Judge to get more plate appearances. He has batted third in the lineup every game this season, but two years ago manager Aaron Boone moved him up to the leadoff spot as he chased Roger Maris’ record, so I expect Boone to follow the same plan in September. That would also prevent teams from pitching around Judge as Juan Soto would be right behind him in the lineup.

The key for Judge will be staying healthy. He’s only missed two games this season, but there’s very little room for error and as hot as Judge’s bat has been, he needs to be even better to have a shot at 74 home runs.

Home runs also tend to drop in September with the colder weather, compared to the warmer months of July and August when home run rates are at their highest peak.

Prediction

Judge has a shot at American League history, but he likely won’t touch Bonds’ all-time home run record. Even if Judge’s home run rate for the final 30 games of the season is as high as it was over the last 30 games, that still puts him around 68 dingers on the year.

Give me Judge to break the AL record and finish with Over 62.5 home runs.