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Grey Cup preview and Prediction

Passing yards

It’s been an interesting journey for Nick Arbuckle, who went from struggling to find a job in the off-season to starting for the Toronto Argonauts in the Grey Cup. Arbuckle’s only start this year was in the regular season finale, a 31-30 overtime loss against Edmonton. He completed 23 of 32 pass attempts for 378 yards, two TDs and one interception.

Winnipeg is a completely different beast. They finished the regular season with the best pass defence in the CFL, giving up an average of just 234.8 passing yards per game, and they limited Arbuckle to just 87 passing yards in a game he split with Cameron Dukes earlier this season. I’m low on Arbuckle’s passing numbers in the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup pick: Nick Arbuckle Under 255.5 passing yards

After a slow start to the season, the Bombers are rolling. They dominated the West Final against Saskatchewan, with Zach Collaros passing for 301 yards and four TDs. Collaros is averaging 255 passing yards per game in 2024, but that’s counting a slow start to the season. He’s averaging a little over 300 passing yards over the last four games and that should continue on Sunday.

Collaro’ connection with receiver Kenny Lawler is what makes me lean Over on his Grey Cup passing yards total. Collaros and Lawler connected four times in the West Final for 177 yards and three scores. Lawler has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games and he’ll be the difference for Collaros this week.

Grey Cup pick: Zach Collaros Over 260.5 passing yards

Receiving yards

Damonte Coxie averaged just over 50 receiving yards per game in the regular season, but he had zero receptions on two targets when Arbuckle was throwing him the ball against Winnipeg in Week 8. The Bombers have only grown stronger since then.

Grey Cup pick: Damonte Coxie Under 48.5 receiving yards

Go back and read my thoughts on Zach Collaros if you want to know what I think about Kenny Lawler. He’s an absolute baller, who has topped 75 receiving yards in five straight games while averaging 119 yards per game during that stretch.

Grey Cup pick: Kenny Lawler Over 75.5 receiving yards

Rushing yards

I’ve got no faith in Toronto’s passing attack in the Grey Cup and despite what the players and coaches say to the media, I doubt they believe strongly in Arbuckle. That puts a lot of the offensive responbility on Ka’Deem Carey’s shoulders. Carey had 92 rushing yards in the East Final and win or lose, he’ll put up big numbers in the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup pick: Ka’Deem Carey Over 69.5 rushing yards

Brady Oliveira led the league in rushing this season and he’s clearly the best running back in the CFL. He’s rushed for 70 or more yards 10 times this year and even with the performance Collaros and Lawler put on in the West Final, Oliveira still finished with 119 rushing yards and a score.

Grey Cup pick: Brady Oliveira Over 69.5 rushing yards