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Andrew Rogers
Heat vs. Lakers Point Spread: NBA Odds, Prediction
The Miami Heat have been a lock for spread bettors on the road of late, while the Los Angeles Lakers have lined bettors’ pockets while at home. Something’s going to give Monday night as LeBron James’ old team visits his new one at Staples Center. Miami comes into this one having covered four consecutive games away from American Airlines Arena, while LeBron’s Lakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four home games.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
LeBron got off to a slow start in his first year with the Heat before the team caught fire – and the Lakers appear to be following the same blueprint, having gone 14-5 SU since a 2-5 start. And when they blow teams out, they tend to come back strong the following game, having gone 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 after winning by double digits last time out. Miami has gone the opposite way, with just two covers in their last 14 following a double-digit triumph.
The total is set at 218 – relatively low for a Lakers home game – but the under should still be the more popular play here given the overwhelming trends on both sides. Miami is 5-0 to the under in its last five games against teams above .500, and have gone below the number in four of their last five overall. L.A. is 16-5-1 to the under in its last 22, and the teams have finished below the total in seven of their last eight meetings at Staples Center.
Miami Heat
The Heat have been solid for most of the season – but the third quarter continues to give them problems. Even in Saturday’s 23-point win over the host Los Angeles Clippers, Miami was outscored 28-26 in the first 12 minutes after the break and has allowed an average of 28.4 points in the third quarter this season – fourth-most in the league. With the Lakers averaging 27.8 points in the third, look to that quarter as the highest-scoring of the game.
Los Angeles Lakers
While LeBron is certainly the straw that stirs the Lakers’ drink, they’ve built this incredible run on the back of a surprisingly stout defence. Since that rough seven-game stretch to open the season, Los Angeles boasts the league’s third best defensive rating (103.7), behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. And that’s happening even as the Lakers maintain the fourth-best pace in the NBA over that span (103.3).
