The Open Championship predictions, best bets and golf odds
It remains to be seen if the World Cup is coming home, but The Open Championship most definitely is. Yes, England will host the fourth and final major of the 2026 golf season this week at Royal Birkdale in Southport.
Weather is often a significant factor at this particular tournament, as it can drastically affect scoring. Case in point: Jordan Spieth won with -12 at Royal Birkdale in 2017, but +3 was good enough for Padraig Harrington to lift the Claret Jug in 2008. If the wind blows, bogeys – and even doubles, triples, or worse – can come in bunches.
For the upcoming week, however, the forecast currently calls for mostly sunny skies and not too much wind. If that does indeed turn out to be the case, don’t be surprised if players go low. Nine of the last 11 winners of The Open have finished at double-digits under par. No champion has been worse than -8 since 2013 (Phil Mickelson at Muirfield).
Who will join Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai and Wyndham Clark as major champions in 2026? Or will one of those golfers make it two in the same year? Let’s break down The Open odds and discuss the best bets to make.
The Open Championship odds
McIlroy is going off as the second choice, bidding for his second major victory of 2026 and his second Open triumph (first since 2014). The Northern Irishman trails only world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler on the odds chart. They are followed by Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele.
Here is the shortlist of The Open favourites:
- Scottie Scheffler +750
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Jon Rahm +2000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2100
- Tommy Fleetwood +2100
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Wyndham Clark +2700
- Chris Gotterup +2800
- Cameron Young +3000
- Collin Morikawa +3000
- Justin Rose +3000
- Ludvig Aberg +3300
- Robert MacIntyre +3300
- Viktor Hovland +3500
- Tyrrell Hatton +3500
The Open Championship best bet: Rory McIlroy to win at +800 odds
McIlroy won a second consecutive green jacket in April and also tied for seventh at the PGA Championship. The 37-year-old should be in line for more major success at The Open, a tournament that has been kind to him throughout his illustrious career. In fact, it’s surprising that McIlroy has only won it once. He has posted seven other top-10 finishes, including three in his last four appearances at this event. McIlroy is coming off a T7 performance at last week’s Scottish Open following a Sunday 64, so confidence is high at the moment.
The Open Championship: Matt Fitzpatrick to win at +2100 odds
There is a lot to like about Fitzpatrick’s chances this week. The No. 3 player in the world has been awesome in 2026, with eight top-10 finishes – including three victories and a runner-up showing at The Players Championship. He is coming off a fourth-place effort at the Travelers Championship and a T3 result at the Scottish Open. It should also be noted that Fitzpatrick thrives on the big stage. The 31-year-old Englishman is a former U.S. Open champion (2022) and he has placed in the top 10 of five majors dating back to the start of 2022. Look for him to excel in front of the home crowd.
The Open Championship: Chris Gotterup to finish in the top five at +495 odds
We have to throw the United States into the mix. After all, Americans have won the last three Open Championships – and four of the last five. Shockingly, a European has not triumphed on home soil since 2019 (Shane Lowry). Don’t be surprised if Gotterup continues the trend, or at least finishes in the top five. The 26-year-old won the Scottish Open 12 months ago, placed T11 last week and was third at The Open last summer. He also triumphed at the John Deere Classic earlier this month.