Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Same-Game Parlay: Mitch Marner returns to Toronto

There’s no doubt in my mind the most coveted ticket to a Toronto Maple Leafs game this season is hometown boy Mitch Marner’s return with the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday night.

The NHL schedule makers did no favours for Marner and the Golden Knights, who have a quick turnaround after playing in Boston on Thursday in a 4-3 losing effort.

Toronto, on the other hand, has been home all week and they’ll have an extra day rest following a 2-1 shootout loss to Detroit on Wednesday.

With that in mind, here’s what I have for a three-leg parlay priced at +375:

• Maple Leafs moneyline (+100)
• Total Over 6.0 (-118)
• Auston Matthews 3+ shots (+105)

Maple Leafs moneyline

This comes down to a little bit of gut feeling mixed with some practicality.

First, the boo-birds will be deafening in this game. Leafs fans are so nuts they were even booing Marner in his home rink last Thursday.

I know Marner will be motivated, but Toronto also has a ton of motivation in this game. They just blew a two-goal third period lead in a 6-5 overtime loss in Vegas last week and they’re currently in a desperate playoff race. The Maple Leafs don’t want the heat that will come from being swept in the season series by Marner and the Golden Knights.

This is also a really tough spot for Vegas. They’re playing the second half of a back-to-back on a tough Eastern Conference road trip. Marner will certainly be at his best, but I just don’t think you can expect that extra juice from the rest of the team after they already got Marner a win against the Leafs last week.

Total Over 6.0

Just look at last week’s result between these clubs, it was an absolute shootout and was just over two minutes away from ending in a literal shootout.

These teams have combined to score seven or more goals in five of the last six head-to-heads and I don’t trust either goalie. Vegas’ Adin Hill is still working out the kinks after a long injury layoff and Joseph Woll allowed 11 goals on 62 shots (.823 save percenage) in two games prior to the Detroit loss..

Auston Matthews 3+ shots

Marner is the obvious player to circle in this game, but I’ll have my eyes on his former linemate, Auston Matthews. This feels like a ‘captains game’, whatever that means.

Matthews has made it very clear he is tired of talking about Marner and there’s no better way to end the narrative that the Leafs are struggling without Marner than to have Matthews dominate in a Toronto victory.

I think you see Matthews hammer the puck on net all night. He doesn’t have the injured William Nylander and John Tavares certainly looks like he’s lost a step. If Matthews wants to shut up the talk about Marner, tonight’s the night to do it.