Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Odds, Prediction
We kick off July with a good ol’ fashioned midwestern National League Central rivalry. The Cincinnati Reds (39-45, fifth in NL Central, -58 run differential) hope to reverse their fortunes in Milwaukee against a dominant Brewers squad (52-31, first in NL Central, +147 run differential).
Airing on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET, it’s the sixth of 13 season meetings, and the third game in this four-game set. The first five games have all gone the Brewers way, by counts of 2-1, 2-0 and 6-5 in Cincinnati, and then 5-3 and 7-2 so far in Milwaukee.
A pair of 27-year-old southpaws take the mound on Wednesday, and we will break down which team has the edge.
Milwaukee is a -165 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 9.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
This matchup features the MLB’s seventh-best bullpen by ERA (Brewers – 3.64) and the MLB’s sixth-worst bullpen by ERA (Reds – 4.87). Of the 22 runs the Brewers have scored against the Reds this year, 13 have come against Cincinnati’s bullpen. On the flip side, the Brewers’ bullpen has surrendered six runs to the Reds, five of which came in one game, and zero in this series.
It is notable that the Reds are 45-39 against the runline this year, and 49 of their 84 games have gone over the run total. The Brewers have also been great against the runline, covering 47 times in their 83 games, but have been far more reliant on pitching and defence, with the under cashing in 44 of their games.
Cincinnati Reds
June was a month to forget for Cincinnati and its fans, as the team stumbled to a 9-17 record. Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz got injured on May 31 and missed the first 19 games of the month, in which the Reds went 7-12. Since returning, he has hit just .185 with a .615 OPS in seven games, and the team has lost to the Brewers four times in the seven games he has been back. He hit a homer in Milwaukee on Monday.
Sal Stewart, the Reds’ only other qualified hitter with an OPS north of .800, did all the damage on Tuesday, with a double, a home run and both the team’s RBIs. The Reds rank 19th in the MLB with a .684 road OPS, but fourth in all of baseball against left-handed pitching, with a .760 OPS.
Andrew Abbott takes the ball for the first time against the Brewers this year, though he did face them three times last year. After a disastrous April (7.22 ERA), Abbott has since dialled it in, making it 10 straight starts of five complete innings or more and three earned runs or fewer. He has a 3.17 ERA on the road, and the Brewers are hitting .218 with a .646 OPS lifetime against him.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers turn to left-handed rookie Shane Drohan on Wednesday, who is making his seventh start and 17th appearance. His last start came in Cincinnati, when he worked around trouble to toss 4.1 scoreless innings, allowing five hits and three walks, lowering his ERA to 3.12.
Behind him, the Brewers rank 10th in baseball with a .758 home OPS, but they don’t fare as well against lefties, amounting to a .679 OPS.
It is notable that Jackson Chourio (two HR), William Contreras, Joey Ortiz and Christian Yelich have combined to hit five home runs against Abbott, while Brice Turang has added two doubles. Abbott has been lights out the second time through the order, but allows an .842 OPS the first time through and an .874 OPS the second time through.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Reds vs. Brewers?
Just one of the five games in this season series has eclipsed nine total runs, but I am betting Wednesday will be the second. The Reds have dominated left-handed pitching, and I don’t like the idea of Drohan finding success against the Reds in consecutive appearances when he had to dance out of trouble the first time. The Reds are due for a bit of an outburst.
On the other side, while the Brewers have been down against lefties and Abbott has been mighty consistent as of late, the meat of the Brewers’ lineup sees him too well to ignore. The Reds get to Drohan early, while the Brewers score one in the first three innings, then explode for three or four in the fifth or sixth.
Best Bet: Over 9.0 total runs (-105)
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MIL