Bills vs. Jaguars Point Spread: NFL Wildcard Odds, Prediction
The Bills ended the season at 12-5, not finishing atop the AFC East for the first time since 2019. The 13-4 Jaguars claimed the AFC South for the first time since 2022 and are riding an eight-game win streak.
Both clubs finished in the top six in scoring this season behind the arms of star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence. Allen piled up another 39 touchdowns this season which is one greater than Lawrence’s output of 38 scores. Both QBs can at times carry their units, although Jacksonville’s developed a ton of talent on offence in comparison to Buffalo, which is a big reason why the Bills are a Wild Card team and the Jaguars finished in the top three in the AFC.
Kickoff at EverBank Stadium goes Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, with the Bills currently a -120 moneyline favourite on the road and the total set at 52 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Not only are the Jaguars 8-0 outright over their past two months, they’ve covered the spread in all eight wins too. Jacksonville was 7-2 on home field this season and scored at least 35 points in four straight home outings. The Bills finished the regular season on a 5-1 run with key road wins at Pittsburgh and New England down the stretch. Buffalo was 5-3 on the road this season.
Despite Jacksonville’s success, they are currently a home underdog. The Jags are 6-14 straight up in their last 20 games as an underdog. Buffalo’s been the favourite in 15 of their 17 games.
Jacksonville is 2-0 against Buffalo in the post-season with the most recent win coming in 2018. This was the year before the Bills drafted Josh Allen who is now set to play his 14th playoff game. Allen is 7-6 in these games with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions in his post-season career. Trevor Lawrence meanwhile is playing in his third career playoff game and is 1-1 with a 5:5 touchdown to interception ratio.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen gets all the glitz and glamour when it comes to this Bills offence, but it’s likely the pieces around Allen who are going to make or break this game… or Allen carries them. James Cook III ended the season as the NFL’s rushing champ with 1,621 yards but is up against an elite Jacksonville run defence. If the run game stalls, a pass-catcher or two needs to step up. Khalil Shakir led the way with 719 receiving yards, and tight end Dalton Kinkaid was right behind with 571 yards and a team-best five receiving touchdowns. But keep an eye out for 32-year-old Brandin Cooks, who brings a ton of playoff experience and had 101 yards in a Week 17 game.
The Bills defence has stepped over the past 3.5 games, albeit against some mediocre opponents. They’ve been better against the run too but still finished 28th this season with 136.2 rushing yards allowed per game and Jacksonville should test this. The last big variable for Buffalo is the kicker position. Matt Prater re-aggravated a quadriceps injury so the Bills have signed journeyman Matthew Wright who is now on his fourth NFL team this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Seven of Jacksonville’s eight straight wins have come via double-digits. Trevor Lawrence has played elite over this stretch as he has 24 total touchdowns in these eight wins. First-year head coach Coen has developed a balance within this Jags offence; Lawrence finished the season with just over 4,000 passing yards while Travis Etienne Jr. finished with 1,107 rushing yards. Three Jaguars pass-catches finished with over 500 yards, and their number one option isn’t even on that list but that’s because they traded for Jakobi Meyers who then had 483 yards on 42 catches through nine games with Jacksonville. 2023 sixth-round pick Parker Washington led the team with 847 receiving yards, so expect a high dosage of these two on Sunday.
Defensively, Jacksonville enters as a top rushing defence allowing a league-low 85.6 yards per game. This adds an interesting strength-on-strength matchup with Buffalo having the 2025–26 rushing champ in James Cook III. It’s a big task ahead for Foyesade Oluokun, the linebacker who led Jacksonville with 143 tackles which is 59 more than any Jags defender.
Keep an eye on the status of a couple offensive lineman too; left tackle Cole Van Lanen (knee) left last week’s game versus Tennessee and right guard Patrick Mekari (back) has been out for straight games.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Jaguars?
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BUF
JAC