Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays get their final look this season at AL East rival Baltimore, one of the majors’ biggest disappointments, but playing better lately, as the teams open a three-game set Friday night at Rogers Centre. Toronto is a -135 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8 runs.
Betting Analysis
The Baltimore Orioles were a playoff team the past two seasons and had a win total of 87.5 for 2025, but they will finish well below that and most likely last in the AL East for the first time since 2021. That club won just 52 games in ’21 but then the franchise started climbing back up. But there may be another mini-reboot this offseason.
The lineup is in decent shape, but the pitching staff, especially the rotation, must be addressed. It didn’t help that projected No. 1 Grayson Rodriguez didn’t pitch all this year, but that’s on the Orioles for even hoping that would be the case. After all, he hasn’t taken the mound for the team since July 2024 while dealing with a variety of shoulder and elbow injuries. Anything from him at this point going forward is likely just a bonus, but he won’t be ready to start 2026, either. The O’s have played much better under interim manager Tony Mansalino (54-49 record), so there’s a solid shot he gets the full-time job.
Toronto hasn’t won a season series against Baltimore since 2022 and trails this year 6-4 (split four at Rogers Centre). Bo Bichette is hitting .409 against Orioles pitching with seven runs scored, five RBIs and three doubles but landed on the injured list earlier this week. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at .342 in the series with three doubles, a homer and seven knocked in. Those two are the only current Blue Jays to have played in all 10 games.
Jordan Westburg (.395, four HR, six RBI) and Adley Rutschman (three HR, 10 RBI) have had good season series for Baltimore, but both are currently on the injured list as well.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore finished a home three-game sweep of Pittsburgh on Thursday and has won nine of 11 overall – almost surely too late to even finish with a .500 record, though. With nothing to play for, the O’s are using a lot of young guys right now with rookie outfielder Dylan Beavers driving in the winning run both Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Pirates. The team seems to be winning in walk-off fashion almost daily lately. Baltimore will get back veteran outfielder Tyler O’Neill, a British Columbia native, from the injured list on Friday, but he has had a terrible year after a good 2024 campaign with Boston.
One huge bright spot this year for the Orioles has been lefty Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.51 ERA), who starts Friday. He was great as a rookie in 2021 with the Marlins but then his career fell apart largely due to injury. Rogers would be leading the majors in ERA if he had enough innings to qualify, but he got a late start to the year off injury and has had only 15 starts. Rogers has not seen the Jays in 2025 and no Toronto batter has more than six career at-bats off him. The Orioles are 33-39 away.
Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday could not have gone much better for the Blue Jays. Not only did they beat visiting Houston 6-0 to win two of three in that potential preview of an AL playoff series, but Kevin Gausman threw a complete game (his fourth career), meaning the entire bullpen will be rested for Friday’s series opener. That group looks gassed as since the All-Star break, Blue Jays relievers rank 25th in ERA (5.17) and 27th in walk rate (10.8 per cent). Thursday was Toronto’s first nine-inning complete game since July 27, 2024. The Jays improved to 63-4 this season when scoring at least five runs in a game. Also Thursday, Anthony Santander began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo, although he won’t be back in the majors until likely next weekend at the earliest.
It’s righty Chris Bassitt (11-8, 3.97 ERA) on the mound Friday. He has allowed two earned or fewer in four straight but took a hard-luck loss last time out at the Yankees. Bassitt has been struggling to go deep into games at times of late. But his home splits remain crazy: 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 outings. In two starts this year vs. the Orioles, the 37-year-old is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA. Baltimore batters are hitting a whopping .385 against him. Gunnar Henderson is 4-for-11 career off Bassitt with two homers. The under is 6-0 in Toronto’s past six games.
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