NCAAB
Jordan Ramsay
March 12, 2024

NCAA Tournament Odds: What are the most common March Madness first round upsets?

The NCAA Tournament has become one of the most anticipated events of the year on the North American sports calendar in large part due to the potential of upsets, particularly in the first round.

We’re looking at every March Madness first round matchup since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 as we determine which seeds have the best shot at paying off with an upset.

Before we dive into the stats, keep in mind that First Four records are not included as the NCAA only considers the 64-team bracket.

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Don’t forget to check out our complete list of NCAAB game odds and NCAAB futures.

No. 1 vs. No. 16 Seeds

No. 1 vs. No. 16	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	150-2
Winning Percentage	.987
Last Season	3-1

Only two 16-seeds have ever upset a No. 1 seed in the tournament’s history, although both upsets happened within the last six years. In 2018, the UMBC Retrievers stunned Virginia and just last year Fairleigh Dickinson took out Purdue. One thing you can take away from that is the growing parity in college basketball is likely setting us up to see even more major upsets in the future.

No. 2 vs. No. 15 Seeds

No. 2 vs. No. 16	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	144-111
Winning Percentage	.928
Last Season	3-1

Richmond became the first 15-seed to upset a 2-seed when they slipped past Syracuse in 1991. The 2-seeds went undefeated from 2001-2011, but six 15-seeds have won games since 2012. A 15-seed has upset a 2-seed in three straight tournaments, including Princeton, who reached the Sweet 16 last year.

No. 3 vs. No. 14 Seeds

No. 3 vs. No. 14	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	130-22
Winning Percentage	.855
Last Season	4-0

No. 3 seeds went undefeated in last year’s tournament and 14-seeds are just 2-26 over the last six years. Abilene Christian was the last 14-seed to advance as they knocked out the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in 2021.

No. 4 vs. No. 13 Seeds

No. 4 vs. No. 13	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	120-32
Winning Percentage	.789
Last Season	3-1

A 13-seed has never gone further in the tournament than the Sweet 16, but they have won at least one game in 13 of the last 18 years. The number 13 has been unlucky for Virginia in recent years as they lost to 13-seeds Ohio in 2021 and Furman last year.

No. 5 vs. No. 12 Seeds

No. 5 vs. No. 12	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	99-53
Winning Percentage	.651
Last Season	4-0

The 12-seeds get all the praise, but do they upset 5-seeds as often as people think? No. 5’s were a perfect 4-0 last year, but they were just 4-4 in the two previous tournaments. In 2022, No. 12 New Mexico State defeated UConn and 12-seed Richmond upset Iowa.

No. 6 vs. No. 11 Seeds

No. 6 vs. No. 11	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	94-58
Winning Percentage	.618
Last Season	3-1

There’s an argument to be made that 11-seeds should get more hype than 12-seeds. No. 11 seeds were just 1-3 in 2023, but they were an outstanding 3-1 in 2022 and they are 11-17 over the last six years. It’s definitely worth checking out 11-seeds as they have won at least one game in every tournament since 2005.

No. 7 vs. No. 10 Seeds

No. 7 vs. No. 10	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	92-59
Winning Percentage	.609
Last Season	3-1

No. 7 seeds have a winning record against No. 10 seeds, but they actually lose to 10-seeds at a higher rate than they beat No. 2 or 15-seeds in the second round. Penn State over Texas A&M was the lone 10-seed upset last year.

No. 8 vs. No. 9 Seeds

No. 8 vs. No. 9	Outcome
All-Time March Madness Record	74-78
Winning Percentage	.487
Last Season	2-2

For years, the Selection Committee has maintained there is no difference between No. 8 and 9-seeds and the stats reflect that as they have a nearly identical record. The 8’s and 9’s went 2-2 last year, but it’s the 9-seeds that have a slight advantage overall. The 9-seeds are 17-11 over the last six years.