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Edgar Chaput
Will the Los Angeles Lakers Make the Playoffs? Prediction, Odds
Last spring and summer, the purple and gold made a dramatic push to the Western Conference Finals in the postseason where they were swept aside by the eventual champion Denver Nuggets.
This season Los Angeles, once again led by LeBron James, exists in a precarious position. At the time of writing, the club is 10th in the West. They’re a decent number of games ahead of the Utah Jazz in 11th but facing stiff odds if they want to leapfrog to sixth and avoid the Play-In altogether, to say nothing of the competition there likely to face in that mini-tournament.
It begs the question: Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs?
Well, it’s complicated. Even our Sports Interaction NBA Futures odds don’t have full confidence in them. “Yes” is priced at +115 and “No” at -135.
Let’s discuss.
Lakers Lack What Wins Chips: Defence
One of the biggest knocks against the L.A. Lakers is that they don’t have much of a defence. The general struggles from last season have carried over to the current one. There was a surprising improvement during their postseason run last year. Seemingly out of the blue, they went from being a side that conceded 116.6 points per match to 109.9. That’s a terrific improvement in its own right. Even more impressive is that it transpired during the most important time of year and in a modern NBA when scoring has soared.
Unfortunately, this regular season their defensive play has reverted to what it was. What’s more, the team is a few points, percentiles, and decimals worse. Opponents put up 117.6 on them. That puts the Lakers at 20th in the NBA. Despite having giants like LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the roster, L.A. allows rivals to snare 44.5 rebounds per game, which also puts them in 20th. Adversaries shoot 47.4 from the field against them, placing the Lakers no better than 19th.
If defence wins championships, then the Lakers lack an extremely important element.
What the Lakers Bring to the Table
All is not lost for the Lake Show. We just mentioned how scoring has increased in modern times. In that respect, the Lakers can tussle with the best of them. They tally 117.2 points a night, good for 11th, which isn’t bad at all. Since they attack the paint so much with their big men, including Rui Hachimura, they have a staggering field goal efficiency of 49.7 per cent, an incredible performance.
The most surprising statistic about their offence’s proficiency is the relative lack of three-point attempts. “Relative” is the operative word, but L.A. “only” takes 30.8 shots from beyond the arc on average. That’s dead last in the NBA. For teams like the Celtics, Kings, Warriors, and Mavericks – all top 10 offences – it’s bombs away. The Lakers will put up a lot on opposing defences, just not in the way it’s expected these days, and that can work to their advantage.
Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell Are Good Plan B’s
At this point in their careers, nobody is going to confuse Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell for superstars. The club belongs to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That said, both Reaves and Russell have proven their value with offensive input.
Reaves is averaging 15.7 points a match and Russell 17.7. Furthermore, the latter has been rolling since early February with seven games in which he scored over 20 points. LeBron and AD can’t do it all on their own, so Russell and Reaves’ contributions are key.
A problem is the lack of depth. Gabe Vincent (knee) was brought in from Miami last summer to spruce up the roster but hasn’t stepped onto the court since December and that was his only game since October 30th. He’s expected to be back by late March, but how efficient will he be? Jarred Vanderbilt, brought last year by the trade deadline, has had an awful season, health-wise.
The Opposition: Kings, Mavericks, Warriors, Suns
Sitting in 10th as the Lakers are is not supposed to be a comfortable position. Luckily the Utah Jazz, 11th in the West, can’t seem to get out of their way. They trail the Lakers by five and a half games at the time of writing and aren’t showing any signs that L.A. should be wary of.
Until proven otherwise, the Jazz aren’t the issue. It’s the Golden State Warriors (ninth), Dallas Mavericks (eighth), Sacramento Kings (seventh) and, who knows, maybe the Phoenix Suns (sixth).
For the first months of the campaign, the Warriors looked as mediocre as they were last year, but not recently. Since losing to L.A. in late January, Stephen Curry and company are 15-5, including a revenge win over the Lake Show. The Kings give James and his mates headaches, such as this past Wednesday. Like the Warriors, when they’re on, there’s no way Los Angeles can stop them, not with their defence. The problem is, similar to the Warriors, the Kings aren’t always on.
There is really no reason why, with all the marbles to play for, the Phoenix Suns should lose to the Lakers. Unless Devin Booker’s ailments persist, or they play a monumentally sloppy game like last Sunday versus OKC, Phoenix is a superior operation to Los Angeles. That’s saying something given that most believe the Suns have underperformed this season.
The lone easier victim is the Dallas Mavericks. Having a dynamic duo like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving hasn’t translated into a dynamic season. At least, not as good as some had hoped. Maybe the Lakers can handle them.
Prediction: Will the Lakers Make the Playoffs?
Not seeing LeBron James partake in playoff basketball for the second time in three seasons sounds crazy. But there is a serious risk of that happening. The In-Season Tournament win was a long, long time ago at this stage. Things have not gone swimmingly. The roster lacks healthy depth, the defence is poor, there are too many nights when Anthony Davis goes quiet, and their closest rivals have what it takes to stop them and have demonstrated as much.
This might be a shocker to some, but the Los Angeles Lakers will not make the playoffs.
